The 2008 Box Office Thread

[John Crichton 4]

Spurned by a discussion of Indy's opening weekend, I've found I've developed quite an interest in box office grosses. So here we go. This past weekend's numbers:

1. The Incredible Hulk- $54.5 mil

2. Kung Fu Panda- $34.3

3. The Happening- $30.5

4. You Don't Mess With The Zohan- $16.4

5. Indiana Jones 4- $13.5 and now at $275.3 domestically

Iron Man was 7th and should be the first to hit 300 million this week.

All figures (now and forever, at least from me) taken from Box Office Mojo.

[AzOutcast 122]

Yeah, Box Office Mojo has been a great tool for me in comparing box office numbers and whatnot. Looks like Iron Man and Indy are leading the year so far.

[JoeinAR 1,949]

Indy should break 300 million by Independence Day. Wall-ee might be a 300 million hit, maybe Dark Knight.

[Koray Savas 2,251]

Don't forget Hancock. Will Smith proved he can sell a movie alone with I Am Legend.

[JoeinAR 1,949]

I think Hancock will open well but it will be like the Happening, people will go ewwwwww.

[John Crichton 4]

It'll be interesting to see what comes out on top this weekend between Get Smart and The Love Guru. Both have a lot of potential (Get Smart is a great concept and was a popular 60s TV comedy, Love Guru is the return of Mike Myers) but they both look to be only average at best.

[Koray Savas 2,251]

Get Smart will make more. The Love Guru is the same Mike Myers trash. I love the Austin Powers trilogy, but his other movies contain the same jokes over and over. The Love Guru is pretty much an Austin Powers movie considering it has Verne Troyer.

I'm looking forward to Get Smart, the trailer is hilarious.

[Docteur Qui 1,544]

I'll see Get Smart, and I'll probably laugh, but I'm expecting just another "Steve Carell embarasses himself with another clone of Michael Scott" movie, rather than the truly bumbling and enjoyable Don Adams character. He wasn't cringe-funny, he was Mel-Brooks-in-his-prime funny. Speaking of Brooks, I'm disappointed but unsurprised at his lack of involvement.

[Koray Savas 2,251]

Didn't Brooks executive produce?

[Docteur Qui 1,544]

Hmmm, I don't think so. i can't find any mention of him in any of the usual places (IMDB, Wikipedia etc) apart from his role as creator of the original series.

[King Mark 3,624]

Indy did better than I thought .Maybe that increases the possibility of expanded score releases. If the movie tanked and nobody cared maybe they'd even cancel the re-issues.

[Docteur Qui 1,544]

[Red 75]

The Dark Knight will be big. I can easily see it being one of the biggest of the summer, but probably not quite up to Indy money.

[Bryant Burnette 654]

I think The Dark Knight is going to be a much bigger hit than Batman Begins was.

The reason for that is fairly simple: a lot of people didn't see Batman Begins in theatres, because they assumed it would be another crappy Batman movie. Many of those people saw it on DVD and loved it, and will almost certainly see the sequel in a theatre; so will the vast majority of the people who saw the first one in a theatre. So this will be one of the relatively rare sequels that outgrosses its predecessor; $300 mil easily, possibly more, possibly the biggest hit of the summer unless WALL*E blows up big-time.

Which it might.

Speaking of sequels that way outgross their predecessor, I think it's probably going to happen with Hellboy II also, although not on the same scale.

[Docteur Qui 1,544]

The Dark Knight will be massive. Why?

Heath Ledger.

[A24 4,325]

A money thread ... where's Olivarez?

[Josh500 1,615]

I have somehow come to doubt that Indy 4 will be the top-grossing movie of the year.

It'll either be Dark Knight or Harry Potter. HP is more likely, though.

[AzOutcast 122]

Speaking of sequels that way outgross their predecessor, I think it's probably going to happen with Hellboy II also, although not on the same scale.

I wish that were the case, but it opens one week before Dark Knight. For God's sake, that's a terrible slot. I love the Hellboy universe and I think the second movie will rank up there with one of the greater comic book flicks, paving a way for a third and final Hellboy (and from what Guillermo was hinting at, it would be pretty spectacular) but I don't see it making much beyond the second week. I hope I'm wrong though.

Then again, Guillermo's next project is The Hobbit, and after that makes some huge bank, perhaps he'll be allowed to do whatever the hell he wants. And this time, it'll be better than a remake too long for its own good (yeah, I went there).

My vote for top grossing movie will be Dark Knight. The buzz is huge and Ledger's death only increases that.

[Docteur Qui 1,544]

I have somehow come to doubt that Indy 4 will be the top-grossing movie of the year.

It'll either be Dark Knight or Harry Potter. HP is more likely, though.

No it won't, Half-Blood Prince is released in November, only a month before the end of the year.

[Josh500 1,615]

I have somehow come to doubt that Indy 4 will be the top-grossing movie of the year.

It'll either be Dark Knight or Harry Potter. HP is more likely, though.

No it won't, Half-Blood Prince is released in November, only a month before the end of the year.

If the movie is released in 2008, it doesn't matter when it finishes its run. If it finishes in March or April 2009, it will still count as a 2008 movie!

[Docteur Qui 1,544]

Yes, I was being a smart ass because you said it'll be the biggest movie of the year.

[Bryant Burnette 654]

Speaking of sequels that way outgross their predecessor, I think it's probably going to happen with Hellboy II also, although not on the same scale.

I wish that were the case, but it opens one week before Dark Knight. For God's sake, that's a terrible slot. I love the Hellboy universe and I think the second movie will rank up there with one of the greater comic book flicks, paving a way for a third and final Hellboy (and from what Guillermo was hinting at, it would be pretty spectacular) but I don't see it making much beyond the second week. I hope I'm wrong though.

Then again, Guillermo's next project is The Hobbit, and after that makes some huge bank, perhaps he'll be allowed to do whatever the hell he wants. And this time, it'll be better than a remake too long for its own good (yeah, I went there).

My vote for top grossing movie will be Dark Knight. The buzz is huge and Ledger's death only increases that.

Hellboy II would only have to have a decent-sized opening weekend in order to end up outgrossing its predecessor by a fairly wide margin, regardless of what The Dark Knight does. And that's what I'm predicting.

Also, bear in mind that a big seller like The Dark Knight seems primed to be -- in other words, the kind of movie that is generating sold-out auditoriums -- tends to have a positive effect on other similar movies in the marketplace; people can't get a ticket to The Dark Knight, they'll buy a ticket to something else they kinda want to see, since they came all that way and don't want to say it was for nothing. So Hellboy II could actually benefit from The Dark Knight. I'm not sure it'll happen that way, but it could.

I have somehow come to doubt that Indy 4 will be the top-grossing movie of the year.

It'll either be Dark Knight or Harry Potter. HP is more likely, though.

Are we talking world-wide or just in America?

Because Half-Blood Prince stands virtually no chance of being the biggest-grossing movie in America for the year. The past couple in the franchise have stalled out just south of $300 mil, and at least two movies from the year so far will make that much plus some.

Worldwide is another story.

[Josh500 1,615]

I have somehow come to doubt that Indy 4 will be the top-grossing movie of the year.

It'll either be Dark Knight or Harry Potter. HP is more likely, though.

Are we talking world-wide or just in America?

Because Half-Blood Prince stands virtually no chance of being the biggest-grossing movie in America for the year. The past couple in the franchise have stalled out just south of $300 mil, and at least two movies from the year so far will make that much plus some.

Worldwide is another story.

I'm ALWAYS talking about worldwide, unless I state clearly "domestic."

BTW, Indiana Jones 4 just surpassed War of the Worlds and The Lost World in worldwide gross. My guess is, it will finish its run at slightly over 700 mill.

[Unlucky Bastard 7,782]

I have somehow come to doubt that Indy 4 will be the top-grossing movie of the year.

It'll either be Dark Knight or Harry Potter. HP is more likely, though.

Are we talking world-wide or just in America?

Because Half-Blood Prince stands virtually no chance of being the biggest-grossing movie in America for the year. The past couple in the franchise have stalled out just south of $300 mil, and at least two movies from the year so far will make that much plus some.

Worldwide is another story.

You're right, plus this one's likely to be the crappiest anyway, since it's based on the book that jumped the shark.

[Quintus 5,399]

Batman doesn't appeal to as wide an audience as Indy does. I'll be surprised if it eclipses the adventure movie, which I believe has finally overtaken Iron Man worldwide.

TGE - Surprised that Indy IV is doing as well as it is.

[Ollie 1,059]

Me too but Transformers grossed over 300 million so I guess it shouldn't suprise me.

I don't know if Wall-E will do over $300, my guess would be $185 to $280 range. It's possible Pixar may have hit their peak with Nemo, much like Disney did with The Lion King, and the films start to drop in box office take.

The Dark Knight probably is the next best bet to top $300 million if all the hype and talk lives up to expectations. This is the only summer film that I've actually heard alot of buzz about around the area.

Hancock has some bad buzz to it and doesn't look like a film that would go over $200 million. Hellboy II could be one of those good films that gets lost in the box office wars and underperforms.

The next HP film will probably do the same as the other sequels, around $260 million or so.

I'm kinds iffy about Get Smart because I wonder how many of today's audiences actually remember the TV series. Plus I'm curious if they will try and keep the humor on the same level as the original or try and over do it for movie audiences.

[John Crichton 4]

The Dark Knight will be massive. Why?

Heath Ledger.

Yes, and for the reasons Bryant mentioned. I once thought that Potter would be up there too, but taking a look at the previous films' track record it doesn't look like it'll challenge for the top spot.

[Romão 2,274]

The Hype surroundig the Dark Knight was pretty massive before Heath Ledger's death. Batmab Geins really built its reputation on the home video market, kinda like the first Matrix. If it is indeed as good as many people (including myself) are expectingh, it could be really be massive. Ledger's performance was already hyped before he died. But his death, for better and for worse, will make the movie even bigger.

[JoeinAR 1,949]

the Dark Knight has a really strange release date. Its not set up well to be the boxoffice hit of the summer.

Whats funny is that the film is actually supposed to center more on Harvey Dent and Two face than the Joker, but he's nowhere to be seen in the previews.

I'd say if the movie is great it will do well, but as we've seen boxoffice has nothing to do with the quality of the movie.

regardless of quality it should have a nearly 100 million dollar weekend opening. Staying power is something else. How much it has well wait and see.

These days movies do the bulk of their business in the first week, and they have little staying power.

[John Crichton 4]

Whats funny is that the film is actually supposed to center more on Harvey Dent and Two face than the Joker, but he's nowhere to be seen in the previews.

Probably trying to preserve the surprise for the casual viewer.

[JoeinAR 1,949]

Whats funny is that the film is actually supposed to center more on Harvey Dent and Two face than the Joker, but he's nowhere to be seen in the previews.

Probably trying to preserve the surprise for the casual viewer.

I don't think that, I think they are playing their "Joker" card. It is the best adverstisement.

I think once the film opens they will showcase Dent's role more in the adverstisements

[Mr. Breathmask 555]

I think I've read that was always going to be the angle for the advertising. We've already seen Dent slowly popping up more and more, even before Ledger's passing.

[JoeinAR 1,949]

Maybe in europe but not in the States, we've seen the Joker popping up more and more, in the latest preview, Dent wasn't even shown, it was all Ledger, almost no bat either.

[Charlie Brigden 7]

I think it makes sense. Who's going to be the best person to concentrate on for marketing? Clean-cut all American Eckhart, or Heath Ledger in deranged clown makeup?

Just think of THE PHANTOM MENACE. Darth Maul was in it, ten minutes tops, but his face was plastered over everything because he had a very simple and effective look, which worked well for the marketing folks selling the movie. Not that I think Ledger will be in TDK for ten minutes, but still...

[Red 75]

Heath Ledger's death isn't the only reason that Dark Knight is as hyped as it is. I personally have been looking forward to it long before he died, way back when it was first announced. For many fans this is the Batman movie they've always wanted to see.

[JoeinAR 1,949]

well I can say I just saw a two face clip, but it showed nothing, but it did say Harvey's name

[Koray Savas 2,251]

Of course it won't show anything. That would be a spoiler.

[Mr. Breathmask 555]

Maybe in europe but not in the States, we've seen the Joker popping up more and more, in the latest preview, Dent wasn't even shown, it was all Ledger, almost no bat either.

I must not have seen the latest preview. I've seen these three:

1. Teaser trailer. Dialogue over the Batman logo. Ends with the joker card flying towards screen and the joker laughing.

2. Trailer 1. Joker-centred, hardly any Dent or no Dent at all. Plays the Batman vs. Joker angle.

3. Trailer 2. Features several bits from Dent and introduces him as a big character. There seems to be about the same amount of Dent as there is Joker, but Dent is shown first if I recall correctly.

And come to think of it, I haven't seen any advertising for The Dark Knight here yet except for the occasional stand in the cinema. I pretty much watch all my movie advertising on the Internet, which would be geared to the American audience.

[Ollie 1,059]

As stated the Joker is a more recognizable villians to tne casual audience.

They probably want to keep the storyline of Dent's eventual fate a suprise for the average movie fan who doesn't follow Batman religiously.

[indy4 155]

I hope Indy 4 is the top grossing film of the year, it's the best I've seen so far.

I am sad that The Happening isn't even in the top 5. I really thought it was a fabulous film.

[Koray Savas 2,251]

In Bruges is the best film of the year so far.

[Ollie 1,059]

Iron Man topped $300 Wednesday.

Indy should hit it in another 10 days or so.

The Happening.....well not much is happening.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/

The Incredible Hulk is actually 7 million behind the Hulk after the same amount of days in release. The daily figures after the opening weekend are almost identical. The key will be this weekend, in 2003 Hulk dropped 69% after it's opening weekend. Even with a smaller drop it doesn't look like this film is going to be the huge hit people expected. Probably finish in the $150 to $170 million range.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/cha...p;id=hulkvs.htm

[King Mark 3,624]

I loved The Incredible Hulk .I thought it was better than Ironman

[Red 75]

I'm not surprised The Happening isn't doing so well. It's a very hard sell, and has had some damaging word-of-mouth.

[Bryant Burnette 654]

Iron Man topped $300 Wednesday.

Indy should hit it in another 10 days or so.

The Happening.....well not much is happening.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/

The Incredible Hulk is actually 7 million behind the Hulk after the same amount of days in release. The daily figures after the opening weekend are almost identical. The key will be this weekend, in 2003 Hulk dropped 69% after it's opening weekend. Even with a smaller drop it doesn't look like this film is going to be the huge hit people expected. Probably finish in the $150 to $170 million range.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/cha...p;id=hulkvs.htm

I think The Incredible Hulk was always going to be a tough sell. People really didn't like the Ang Lee movie, and most people don't pay attention closely enough to know that this one is unrelated to that one.

My guess is that they'll end up having very similar final grosses, and that this one will find a larger audience on DVD.

[John Crichton 4]

Well if Friday's estimates hold Get Smart is going to win the weekend easily, and The Love Guru won't even crack the top 3.

[Ollie 1,059]

Kung Fu Panda is still going strong.

[indy4 155]

Kung Fu Panda?

Oh dear.......

[JoeinAR 1,949]

Get Smart should have been the box office winner, its so damned funny.

[Wycket 36]

Get Smart should have been the box office winner, its so damned funny.

Get Smart was number one this weekend. I liked it but didn't necessarily find it all that funny. Guess I'll have to give it a repeat viewing as I'm a huge Get Smart fanboy.