When will Classical Music and the Classical Tradition finally die?

[BLUMENKOHL 1,068]

It seems like this past week there's been a surge of articles about the end of classical music.

For fun, I tried to see if we can apply some statistics to see if classical music will be dead soon. The model I use is basically the simple form of J. Richard Gott's doomsday formula.

The story behind it goes like this:

In 1969 Gott visited the Berlin Wall. While there, he wondered how much longer the wall would be around. There's no easy way to collect all the information necessary to make a perfect prediction. But he knew of something called the Copernican method. The idea behind the Copernican method is simply: we have no reason to believe we are special/privileged in any meaningful way.

In terms of something like the Berlin Wall, it meant that Gott had to accept that, statistically, the most likely point he was in the life of the wall was somewhere randomly around the middle of it.

With that in mind, all he needed was the age of the wall. The Berlin Wall went up in 1961. So, in 1969 it was 8 years old. Gott could do the math:

1961 + [ 8 / ( 1 - .75 ) ] = 1993

He could be 75% confident that the Berlin Wall would not be around in 1993.

He actually successfully applied this formula to the lifespan of broadway shows. Knowing nothing but the age of the broadway show, he could predict how many days a show would no longer be around in. The gist of the model is that the longer something has been around, the longer you can expect it to be around (again, remember you are most likely somewhere in the middle of it, rather than at its birth or its death).

So what does his formula say about classical music? It's tough to select a cut-off for the birth of classical music, because it grew sort of organically. But I think the point where we can readily start to recognize music as being classical is around the "common practice period". So let's say classical music started during that, which pegs the birth year as 1600.

That was 414 years ago. And let's use 75% confidence like Gott.

1600 + [ 414 / ( 1 - .75 ) ] = 3256

We can be 75% confident that classical music, (the music we associate with having started around 1600) will no longer be around by the year 3256.

Just for fun, I decided to use Gott's more complex formula, which gives you the range. With 75% confidence we can be confident that classical music will be around another 59 to 2900 years.

[publicist 4,643]

Good to know.

[BloodBoal 7,538]

[BLUMENKOHL 1,068]

We can be 50% confident that BloodBoal will no longer be posting here in 2018.

2010+(4/.5)

[#SnowyVernalSpringsEternal 10,265]

We can be 50% confident that BloodBoal will no longer be posting here in 2018.

2010+(4/.5)

Let's hope.

[Glóin the Dark 1,220]

Can you predict how many posts this thread will end up with?

[BLUMENKOHL 1,068]

No, but we can be 50% sure that you will stop posting sometime in 2015!

[Naïve Old Fart 9,520]

I'd say at least 8.

I don't think that it will die. it will undoubtly change, but it won't die.

[#SnowyVernalSpringsEternal 10,265]

No, but we can be 50% sure that you will stop posting sometime in 2015!

Can you predict when I will stop posting?

[BLUMENKOHL 1,068]

50% confidence that Stefan is no longer posting by 2026.

[Glóin the Dark 1,220]

There's a 1% chance that Stefan's post count will some day exceed seven million...

[BLUMENKOHL 1,068]

At this rate, by 2026 he will only have 143,000 posts.

[#SnowyVernalSpringsEternal 10,265]

50% confidence that Stefan is no longer posting by 2026.

You base the 50% simply on the factor that by 2026 John Williams may be long dead and JWFan will no longer exist. Cause thats the only variable that would make me stop posting on JWFan...the lack of JWFan...

There's a 1% chance that Stefan's post count will some day exceed seven million...

No, I care only about the quality of my posts, not the quantity.

[BloodBoal 7,538]

[Gruesome Son of a Bitch 6,488]

How we deal with death is at least as important as how we deal with life, wouldn't you say?

[BloodBoal 7,538]

[Gruesome Son of a Bitch 6,488]

Well, now you have something new to think about. Carry on.

[BloodBoal 7,538]

[KK 3,307]

So you've become one of them have you BB?

[BloodBoal 7,538]

[#SnowyVernalSpringsEternal 10,265]

So you've become one of them have you BB?

Yes, Alvar is one of us now.

[KK 3,307]

Pity. I used to like him.

[BloodBoal 7,538]

[Dixon Hill 4,234]

Pity. I used to like him.

I liked him better before he died.

[BloodBoal 7,538]

[RedBard 71]

Gently down the stream.

Anyway, I may have found a flaw in the Copernican method. It assumes that the object of the math has already reached its (for lack of a better phrase) half-life point, and it fails to account for the human factor, meaning that as long as there is someone around to perpetuate it, they will be pushing the half-life point further back. Finally, it fails to account for the end of humanity via global thermonuclear warfare, which can easily bring an end to anything, including classical music.

[Wojo 2,453]

There's a 1% chance that Stefan's post count will some day exceed seven million...

No, I care only about the quality of my posts, not the quantity.

Indeed!

Sigh.

[BloodBoal 7,538]

[Glóin the Dark 1,220]

It assumes that the object of the math has already reached its (for lack of a better phrase) half-life point...

I don't think so, actually. As far as I understand it, the calculation is purporting to reveal what the probable longevity of the object would be if there were no information on what proportion of its life has already passed, so that the probability that we have not yet reached the x-life point (for any x between 0 and 1) is given by a uniform density function.

[BloodBoal 7,538]

[Glóin the Dark 1,220]

It'll all come to life when the background music is added.

[Dixon Hill 4,234]

Classical music won't die. But thankfully the people who keep claiming it's going to will.

[Unlucky Bastard 7,782]

Hopefully soon. Classical music isn't very realistic or relatable.

[Glóin the Dark 1,220]

What music is realistic?

[Incanus 5,714]

Hopefully soon. Classical music isn't very realistic or relatable.

You forgot one important factor Draxie. You can't dance to classical music.

[Unlucky Bastard 7,782]

What music is realistic?

Hans Zimmer is more realistic! It doesn't take a huge amount of musical skill to imagine Zimmer-type music in your head when you're in a dramatic situation.

[BloodBoal 7,538]

[Incanus 5,714]

Hopefully soon. Classical music isn't very realistic or relatable.

You forgot one important factor Draxie. You can't dance to classical music.

And where are the lyrics?!

Yeah. I want to hear what the music is trying to say. About love and relationships. And booty.

[BloodBoal 7,538]

[Glóin the Dark 1,220]

Hans Zimmer is more realistic! It doesn't take a huge amount of musical skill to imagine Zimmer-type music in your head when you're in a dramatic situation.

It really depends on the nature of the dramatic situation, I find. I tend to have Zimmer-type music in my head any time I'm out on the high seas in a whimsical escapade of swashbuckling piracy. On the other hand, when I've just engineered the deactivation of the electro-magnetic seal to a vault containing $640 million in non-negotiable bearer bonds, I'll very often have something from the late classical / early romantic period in mind. Probably Schubert.

[Marian Schedenig 8,193]

You forgot one important factor Draxie. You can't dance to classical music.

And where are the lyrics?!

[Naïve Old Fart 9,520]

Can you predict how many posts this thread will end up with?

Make that 41.

[Glóin the Dark 1,220]

[BloodBoal 7,538]

[#SnowyVernalSpringsEternal 10,265]

Is it derp derp derp yet?

[BloodBoal 7,538]

[Naïve Old Fart 9,520]

Can you predict how many posts this thread will end up with?

Make that 41.

47.

[Glóin the Dark 1,220]

Getting closer!

[BLUMENKOHL 1,068]

On November 21, 2014 at 1:12 PM, Stefancos said:

Let's hope.

 

It happened!

[A24 4,331]

He still could return  ...