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Brexit: The Official Thread

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  1. 1. In or out?



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27 minutes ago, Stefancos said:

Maggie did better 

Be warned, Jor-El Steef. The Council JWfan has already evaluated this outlandish theory of yours. Any attempt to conjure affection for Thatcher and to create a climate of fear among the posters must be regarded as an act of insurrection.

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2 minutes ago, Stefancos said:

Boris, Gove iirc and some others chickened out 

It cost Boris what little credibility he had left.

 

Boris chickened out because he knew his so-called charm wouldn't work this time. And that's really all he's got.

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1 hour ago, Richard said:

Be warned, Jor-El Steef. The Council JWfan has already evaluated this outlandish theory of yours. Any attempt to conjure affection for Thatcher and to create a climate of fear among the posters must be regarded as an act of insurrection.

 

 

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She's going to get some legislative assurances in regards to the Backstop. That'll get her the backing she needs to push her deal through. The whole Irish border thing has been badly handled all along though, with a disproportionate degree of emphasis placed on it.

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For something that only amounts to around 5% of Northern Ireland's GDP, it's become absurd how much mania has surrounded the EU's Irish fault line just in the last couple of weeks. It's that debacle which completely unnecessarily and wholly disproportionately derailed the wider BREXIT proceedings thus far the most.

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13 minutes ago, Stefancos said:

An emphasis that was entirely lacking during the referendum, iirc.

 

They totally ignored it, then they voted for Brexit and remembered “oh yeah, Northern Ireland.”

 

May falling the election and losing seats and needing to rely on DUP votes is the problem though. 

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Personally, I'm fine with a hypothetical backstop arrangement. I think a lot are. The only sticking point is the indefinite EU jurisdictional nature of the agreement up to now, which is where I think some progress is going to be made on the part of the UK government in the next few weeks.

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I'm rather happy she won today. Some potential replacements would have been even worse than her. Johnson is simply unfit to be an MP, and the Mogg is a serial liar about the impact of no-deal.

 

And the next person who says that a second vote is a 'betrayal of democracy' is going to be hit over the head with a soft object. Who is betrayed if you're asking the same people the same question, with more accurate information available? Answer: Nigel Farage and anyone else who doesn't care about whatever negative impacts Brexit will cause as long as there are fewer foreigners.

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18 hours ago, Glóin the Dark said:

 

The Good Friday Agreement is a compromise whereby (among other things) Northern Ireland remains a part of the United Kingdom until such time as its electorate votes for a United Ireland while, in the meantime, the right of any of its citizens to identify as Irish rather than British is recognised, and honoured by keeping the border as invisible as possible. It being a compromise, I daresay that a lot of people aren't quite content with it, but a majority (excluding the DUP) thought it was better than getting blown up.

 

Plus the British are really the Welsh and the Cornish so...

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55 minutes ago, Brónach said:

Does she need to satisfy the lunatics?

 

Well they are all that’s keeping her in power. 

 

Saying that, the EU is not going to inconvenience the Republic .

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In terms of getting her agreement approved by Parliament, I think we're well past the point at which satisfying the DUP is a major stumbling block, since 117 of the MPs from her own party voted yesterday for her to be sacked. Even if we were to assume (generously) that she could get support for her deal from half of those rebels (as well as all of the MPs who voted in her favour yesterday), she'd still need to be rescued by the additional support of 50 or 60 opposition MPs, but anything she could say or do to win them over is likely to be anathema to the rebels in her own party (and vice versa). It seems that her chief tactic is to run down the clock in the hope that, with little time left before Brexit Day, the second referendum option will widely have come to be seen as unfeasible, and hence that sufficienty many MPs will feel forced into supporting her deal as the only tolerable option left on the table.

 

For the DUP, though, there always remains the nuclear option of bringing down the government if it looks likely to succeed in passing a deal which crosses their red lines. I've often seen commentators describe this as an ultimately empty threat from the DUP, on the grounds that they hate Jeremy Corbyn so much that they wouldn't risk doing something which could let him into government. They certainly don't want to do that, but to take it for granted that they definitely won't is a complacent assumption by many who don't fully understand the priorities and obsessions of those people.

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6 hours ago, Bilbo said:

I wonder what May can get out of the EU in addition to deal already offered. I can’t inagine it’ll be much. Certainly nothing that will satisfy the DUP.

I'll settle for a remastered, complete ROTJ, with the pristine multi track tapes.

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Apparently "final deal" and "no movement on the deal" terminology is something the EU is known for, before reopening negotiations and giving another inch. Maastricht isn't that long ago here.

 

8 hours ago, Brónach said:

Does she need to satisfy the lunatics?

 

7 hours ago, Bilbo said:

 

Well they are all that’s keeping her in power. 

 

Saying that, the EU is not going to inconvenience the Republic .

 

I'm not sure you two agree who the lunatics are.

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2 hours ago, Quintus said:

Apparently "final deal" and "no movement on the deal" terminology is something the EU is known for, before reopening negotiations and giving another inch. Maastricht isn't that long ago here.

 

It's called strategy, you can't blame them (us) for playing hardball as long as possible.

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19 minutes ago, Quintus said:

I wouldn't expect there to be. It's like the finale of the 1812 Overture with real cannons here though.

 

Still preferably to Christmas bullshit, I wager.

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3 hours ago, Quintus said:

Yeah I know. I'm just saying that some of us see through it. Yet all I hear everywhere is "the deal is final blah blah blah." It's just the usual hysteria BS as far as I'm concerned.

Nah, nah, nah! Let's haggle.

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31 minutes ago, Alexcremers said:

Did Quint really think that the EU would cave in? Really? 

 

His last post indicates that he still thinks it will happen. 

 

I don’t think the EU are actually all that afraid of a no deal Brexit. It sends a message to the rest of the EU about how difficult it is to leave. 

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"Cave in" is a bit extreme isn't it? Sounds very dramatic compared to wiggle room, or "give another inch", something which I genuinely wouldn't be surprised to see happening before the end date. Alternatively, a second referendum may yet occur. A no deal situation is still off the table, I reckon. Cool heads, gentlemen. This isn't The Mail message board, is it?

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