The Last Jedi Box Office Predictions (No Movie Spoilers Please)

[#SnowyVernalSpringsEternal 10,265]

Awful, actually.

[Arpy 4,145]

I know, they were a mess! It's crazy though, that each of the prequels received an "A" audience score...

[Fancyarcher 350]

5 hours ago, Arpy said:

I know, they were a mess! It's crazy though, that each of the prequels received an "A" audience score...

 

Regular moviegoers usually "love" Star Wars no matter what. Each of the prequels also had good box office multipliers too.

[Arpy 4,145]

TLJ will do fine and it will certainly be no failure from Disney.

[Fancyarcher 350]

1 minute ago, Arpy said:

TLJ will do fine and it will certainly be no failure from Disney.

Yup! 1.5BWW+ is nothing to cry about. 

[Arpy 4,145]

The online backlash will only want people to see what all the fuss is about. Well done Disney!!

[Unlucky Bastard 7,782]

59 minutes ago, Fancyarcher said:

 

Regular moviegoers usually "love" Star Wars no matter what. Each of the prequels also had good box office multipliers too.

 

I remember when regular moviegoers thought SW was too nerdy.

[Fancyarcher 350]

8 minutes ago, Denise Bryson said:

 

I remember when regular moviegoers thought SW was too nerdy.

Yet they still gobbled it up, and went to the theater to see the films. Star Wars has always had mainstream appeal.

 

14 minutes ago, Arpy said:

The online backlash will only want people to see what all the fuss is about. Well done Disney!!

 

Controversy for a big franchise creates interest. How dare Disney try something different. Not my Star Wars! 

[Unlucky Bastard 7,782]

6 minutes ago, Fancyarcher said:

Yet they still gobbled it up, and went to the theater to see the films. Star Wars has always had mainstream appeal.

 

And yet I, a committed fan since childhood, still haven't even seen this one yet. Maybe I've finally transcended it and grown bored by it.

[Fancyarcher 350]

1 minute ago, Denise Bryson said:

 

And yet I, a committed fan since childhood, still haven't even seen this one yet. Maybe I've finally transcended it and grown bored by it.

 

You probably lost interest. Happens!

[A24 4,323]

Box-office numbers for TLJ are declining unusually fast ... 

[publicist 4,643]

Really?

 

Disney-Lucasfilm’s “Star Wars: The Last Jedi” will cross $800 million at the worldwide box office on Tuesday after less than two weeks of release.

[A24 4,323]

Yes, really, compared to TFA, numbers are rapidly dropping. 

[#SnowyVernalSpringsEternal 10,265]

Well TFA was the first SW film in 10 years. Obviously the hype was bigger for that.

[A24 4,323]

And they will keep on making them, of course. But TFA will probably never be equalled (financially) and that's telling me something.

[publicist 4,643]

13 minutes ago, Alexcremers said:

Yes, really, compared to TFA, numbers are rapidly dropping. 

 

That important distinction you forgot. 

[#SnowyVernalSpringsEternal 10,265]

1 minute ago, Alexcremers said:

And they will keep on making them, of course. But TFA will probably never be equalled (financially) and that's telling me something.

 

You mean just like TESB and ROTJ did the box office that Star Wars did?

 

How is that telling?

[A24 4,323]

3 minutes ago, publicist said:

 

That important distinction you forgot. 

 

That's how you compare, you look at the numbers of the previous Star Wars film. It's what Disney will do, I sure.

 

[Chen G. 3,940]

34 minutes ago, publicist said:

Disney-Lucasfilm’s “Star Wars: The Last Jedi” will cross $800 million at the worldwide box office on Tuesday after less than two weeks of release.

 

"There's a difference between big box office numbers and strong ones."

 

 

Its not a failure by any means. Not by a long shot. But it is a tad dissappointing, much like the film itself.

[A24 4,323]

Exactly!

[#SnowyVernalSpringsEternal 10,265]

Don't worry Alex, JJ is doing the next one. His marketing genius will bring Star Wars back on track, and he will give the "fans" what they want.

[publicist 4,643]

3 minutes ago, Alexcremers said:

That's how you compare, you look at the numbers of the previous Star Wars film. It's what Disney will do, I sure.

 

Alex, this is just what some irrational fanboys gleeful for the movie's failure would state. This movie hauled in 800 Mio. $ in under two weeks and will probably have raked in at least 1.3 billion when it's finished in february. So what are you talking about? What WILL Disney do about that, i ask? Wringing hands in despair?

[A24 4,323]

Well, I could say that only irrational fanboys think that a decrease by half is totally insignificant. What will Disney do?! They will wonder why the franchise is decreasing.

[publicist 4,643]

You are seriously accusing me of being an irrational SW fan? 

 

I state the bleedingly obvious. Your reliance on TFA numbers is just rubbish. You look what you've spent and earned accordingly. If it's thrice the amount you go on and don't worry. Or do you seriously think a business as fickle as the movie industry can rely on crystal balls or secret recipes to catch the lightning in a bottle twice?

[Unlucky Bastard 7,782]

Like I've said, TLJ's final total will be a respectable haul. But the fallout from this film will be felt when Solo and Episode 9 are released. The people who hated TLJ might stay home for those films. Franchise fatigue and waning interest may also contribute to that.

[Holko 9,491]

Solo would "fail" (it's Star Wars, it'll still bring in more than most movies could even dream of) without TLJ ever existing. It's not going to be a good measuring tool.

[Naïve Old Fart 9,488]

On 24/12/2017 at 8:34 PM, El Jefe said:

68% drop off second weekend, yikes.

 

Really?! Wow. It's the NEMESIS of STAR WARS.

[#SnowyVernalSpringsEternal 10,265]

1 hour ago, Denise Bryson said:

Like I've said, TLJ's final total will be a respectable haul. But the fallout from this film will be felt when Solo and Episode 9 are released. The people who hated TLJ might stay home for those films. Franchise fatigue and waning interest may also contribute to that.

 

Nonsense, people will line up in droves to see JJ finish Star Wars. 

Solo will probably do decent business.

[Chen G. 3,940]

Yeah, I wouldn't worry too much about Disney's grosses. But I do think its less than what they were hoping for.

[#SnowyVernalSpringsEternal 10,265]

Didnt TFA do over 2 billion? and Rogue One well over a billion, with TLJ passing 800 million within a fortnight?
 

Disney is absolutely raking in the money right now.

[Bilbo 3,709]

There is no way Disney were expecting TFA numbers with any more Star Wars films. That was the big one and they made sure to milk as much from it as they could. 

 

The marketing for that film was insane. If you told me they spent more on that film than RO and TLJ combined I'd believe it. 

[publicist 4,643]

10 minutes ago, Stefancos said:

Didnt TFA do over 2 billion? and Rogue One well over a billion, with TLJ passing 800 million within a fortnight?
 

Disney is absolutely raking in the money right now.

 

This.

 

Some here cannot even fathom how much money that is and what leverage 'even' a 1-billion dollar haul means in franchise worth. 2017 has been an alarmingly lackluster year in BO until 'It' and TLJ came along and still, people here rave against that as if it was an abject failure.

[A24 4,323]

3 hours ago, publicist said:

rubbish. 

 

No, the numbers are facts. You are rubbish, pubs (for saying things like rubbish and irrational fanboys).

 

3 hours ago, publicist said:

You are seriously accusing me of being an irrational SW fan? 

 

 

 

God, you are not dumb are you?

 

 

3 hours ago, publicist said:

 

Alex, this is just what some irrational fanboys gleeful for the movie's failure would state.

 

I rest my case ...

[publicist 4,643]

Alex, you were proven a thick idiot in the past on such matters and are so right now, so stop making this another unearned 'triumph' by lame oneliners.

[A24 4,323]

1 minute ago, publicist said:

 a thick idiot 

 

I rest my case ... again.

 

Learn to control yourself.

[#SnowyVernalSpringsEternal 10,265]

Alex, you have seen the Prequels right? Shockingly incompetent and dull films. Yet each made tons of money.

 

Star Wars is a huge franchise, regardless of its quality....it will make money!

 

There's nothing in film history like it. Bond comes closest in financial reliability.

[Unlucky Bastard 7,782]

Only a matter of time until people wake up to the low quality of these films and ultimately stay away.

[Nick1Ø66 4,687]

3 minutes ago, Stefancos said:

Alex, you have seen the Prequels right? Shockingly incompetent and dull films. Yet each made tons of money.

 

Star Wars is a huge franchise, regardless of its quality....it will make money!

 

There's nothing in film history like it. Bond comes closest in financial reliability.

Harry Potter? Middle-earth? 

 

[#SnowyVernalSpringsEternal 10,265]

Far more recent franchises than Star Wars and Bond, who both seem to have a timeless appeal.

[A24 4,323]

What if it's a trend, Steef? What if the next Star Wars performs half as good as TLJ ? I just don't agree with those who are saying "2 billion or 500.000, Disney doesn't care." They just lost half of the audience. There's no panic but it will be discussed.

[Bilbo 3,709]

I would argue the Potter numbers don't hold up alongside Star Wars or Middle-earth but you could definitely bank on them being a success. 

 

A 7th Peter Jackson Middle-earth film would do less than the previous 6 I think. 

[Chen G. 3,940]

It would really depend on marketing.

[mstrox 6,637]

It would depend on reviews.

[Bilbo 3,709]

9 minutes ago, mstrox said:

It would depend on reviews.

 

Agreed. If the reviews were saying it was more Lord of the Rings and less the Hobbit it'd do well but I think the general public have had their fill of Peter Jackson blockbusters. 

[Chen G. 3,940]

I wouldn't worry about Jackson's career any more than I would Disney's box office numbers. Will he be making a 2-Billion film any time soon? No, but that's okay.

 

As said, it all depends on marketing and reviews.

[Nick1Ø66 4,687]

I really think there are two sides to this box office debate.

 

On one hand, obviously the film is a huge financial success. Denying that is just silly. There’s no way these aren’t good numbers.

 

On the other hand, I think it’s misguided to think that Disney isn’t taking note of, and is concerned about, the negative backlash from a significant part of the fan base. They certainly are. Those fans need to be there when interest isn’t skyrocketing. Disney relies on those fans for all kinds of intangible things in terms of maintaining buzz and keeping interest in the franchise high, but most importantly for repeat business. It’s for the latter reason I believe Disney, while no doubt pleased with TLJs take, nonetheless have to be concerned about the significant box office drop off.

 

And yeah, I do believe they’re likely reconsidering handing the keys to the kingdom to Johnson for a new trilogy. They are definitely going to need the fans along for any story outside the main Saga, and right now it seems to me goodwill towards Rain’s vision isn’t exactly high.

[Unlucky Bastard 7,782]

Disney/LFL might resort to releasing the original unaltered trilogy in 4K UHD as a desperate measure to lure disillusioned fans back to see Episode 9.

[Bilbo 3,709]

Not unless George Lucas allows them.

 

Spoiler: he won’t. 

[Holko 9,491]

When will that alien creature living in his neck finally strangle him?

[Unlucky Bastard 7,782]

He's a sweet old man, and he means well. But he's not going to live forever.