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90th Academy Awards (for 2017 films)


Jay

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2 hours ago, Alexcremers said:

Also, when KM says that The Shape Of Water rips off E.T., he simply doesn't know his film history.

 

6a01bd6f8c8810ab8ddcb39ce1685ede.jpg

 yeah, i know

 

but there were tons of liittle things reminding me of E.T.

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37 minutes ago, Alex said:

So I imagine, based on other award ceremonies, Oldman and McDormand have this in the bag

 

According to FiveThirtyEight's estimates, the other awards indicate that Oldman pretty much has it in the bag; McDormand almost does too, but Saoirse Ronan and Sally Hawkins are both in with a shot at causing an upset.

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Didn't McDormand already win an Oscar? It might be a reason to give it to Hawkins this time.

 

Hoyte van Hoytema (Dunkirk) will probably win one the Oscar for cinematography. I mean, seashores and warplanes, how can you lose?!

 

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On 25.1.2018 at 10:57 PM, Alexcremers said:

 

Ridley Scott who is making crap for the last 30 years? Why listen to him?

This!

 

Recently, Ridley Scott has constantly problems with credible characters. In his entire career he has only made 4 movies that are really "great":

- Alien

- Blade Runner

- Thelma and Louise

- Kingdom of Heaven

For those who don't agree on the latter, you'd better watch the director's cut.

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1 hour ago, Brundlefly said:

Recently, Ridley Scott has constantly problems with credible characters. In his entire career he has only made 4 movies that are really "great":

- Alien

- Blade Runner

- Thelma and Louise

- Kingdom of Heaven

For those who don't agree on the latter, you'd better watch the director's cut.

 

No Gladiator extended cut?

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  • 5 weeks later...

If I were a betting man, I'd put money on each of Lady BirdGet OutCall Me by Your Name and Dunkirk to win the Best Picture Oscar this year. Here's why. This guy is running a project on his website in which he invites visitors to select their favourites in a sequence of head-to-head match-ups between the nominated films, with a view to modelling how the Academy's preferential vote system is likely to pan out. For the past week or so, Lady Bird has topped his list with a more than 1 in 3 chance of winning, while the "favourites" The Shape of Water and Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri are both way down the list, each with around a 1 in 10 chance. Currently, his ranking is:

  1. Lady Bird (35%)
  2. Get Out (20%)
  3. Call Me by Your Name (14%)
  4. The Shape of Water (10%)
  5. Dunkirk (10%)
  6. Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri (9%)
  7. Phantom Thread (1.4%)
  8. The Post (0.1%)
  9. Darkest Hour (0.02%)

If this all seems rather dubious, it's worth noting that he has done the experiment (in the same way, as far as I know) for the last three years and, each time, his highest ranked film has won the award, including the two cases in which the winner was a surprise and the bookies' favourite lost (he gave Moonlight a 39% chance of winning against La La Land's 28%, and Spotlight a 33% chance against The Revenant's 1%). It could have been nothing more than a hat-trick of flukes, of course, but notable enough to warrant keeping an eye on his progress.

 

The four nominees that I mentioned at the beginning currently have an 80% chance of including the winner, according to the above calculations, and they all have pretty high betting odds (from about 10/1 for Lady Bird to more than 50/1 for Call Me by Your Name), so putting an equal amount of money on each of them is rather a tempting prospect. Since I'm not a betting man, I'll just find myself breathing a sigh of relief next Tuesday when The Shape of Water wins after all...

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As i have seen only a fraction of these movies i feel zero connection to guessing games like this. I may say that the obvious favourites ('big' filmmakers, weighty subjects) all stink in one way or another, so the Lady Bird guess might not be so far off the mark (going by the description).

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Lists like this just goes to show that the category should never have expanded to accomodate more than 5 nominees.

 

By the old rules, Lady BirdThe Shape of WaterCall Me By Your Name, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and Phantom Thread would have made fine nominees.

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I don't think I've ever seen all of the Best Picture nominees by the time of the ceremony. There was at least one year in the 90s when I saw them all in the cinema, but it's unlikely that they were all released here by March.

 

This year is a rare one in which I'm at least moderately interested in seeing all of the nominated films, but I didn't go to see Call Me by Your Name and the DVD isn't out until Tuesday. If I had seen it, I may well have made the extra effort to see the remaining four (The Shape of WaterLady BirdThe Post and Darkest Hour) by next Monday just for the one-off value of it...

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If I were a voter (and I'm not allowed to say whether I am) my ranking of the Best Picture nominees that I've seen would be:

  1. Phantom Thread
  2. Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
  3. Dunkirk
  4. Lady Bird
  5. The Shape of Water
  6. Get Out
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6 minutes ago, Glóin the Dark said:

If I were a voter (and I'm not allowed to say whether I am) my ranking of the Best Picture nominees that I've seen would be:

  1. Phantom Thread
  2. Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
  3. The Shape of Water
  4. Lady Bird
  5. Dunkirk
  6. Get Out

 

Fixed!

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