2013 Summer Boxoffice Thread

[JoeinAR 1,957]

It is that time again for the summer boxoffice to start. Now it used to be that the Summer Boxoffice begain around Memorial Day, here in the US, and we are talking strictly US Boxoffice here since I don't have any idea when films open over seas.

But a few years back a little film called Iron Man dramatically changed that start date and even though summer is still over 2 months away Summer boxoffice is about to begin.

I'm starting my poll with Oblivion which opens on April 19. I'm going to continue to the middle of August, but realistically it's unlikely an April or August film will top the charts.

I must say I really don't know what film will dominate this year. Iron Man 3 and Star Trek look terrible, but will still do well enough. Man of Steel is apparently making Warner Bros. very pleased behind the scenes. There is no Dark Knight Rises. Will there be an Avengers among this list?

I've obviously included films very unlikely to do well. I've also had to truncate the number of films simply because there is such a large number coming out this summer, but in a way that's good because there is a lot of choices.

[A24 5,156]

Ah, ticket sales!

[JoeinAR 1,957]

I'm going with Monster University as champ somewhere in the 400 million range, and Long Ranger just looks awful.

yeah Alex if all movies are unsuccessful then the industry dies

[Koray Savas 2,260]

Champion: Monsters University, $400-499

Failure: World War Z

I think Iron Man 3 and Fast & Furious 6 will put up good numbers.

[Jay 46,242]

Hard to guess the biggest winner and the biggest loser this year

But I voted for Monsters U to make the most money, and World War Z to be the biggest bomb.

[Quintus 6,495]

Gonna take a gamble and say Superman, with 4-500mil. Oblivion to be most underwhelming. Never even heard of Monster University.

[KK 3,313]

Anyone think we'll get 5 billion dollar grossing films this year? (In the whole year, not just the summer)

[JoeinAR 1,957]

Hard to guess the biggest winner and the biggest loser this year

But I voted for Monsters U to make the most money, and World War Z to be the biggest bomb.

last year we were certain Dark Knight Rises would finish number one, but no one expected the Avenger's BO success, not to a 600 + million level, and if not for the Colorado Massecre Dark Knight's BO totals would have been significantly higher.

Of course Jason I'm not sure we're exactly stepping out on a limb predicting a Pixar's films success.

[crocodile 9,724]

It was still a respectable gross.

Anyway, who would have predicted Skyfall's soaring theatrical run.

Karol

[JoeinAR 1,957]

I did, I predicted it. Man of Steel is getting good early word of mouth and it may be huge, and WB needs Huge for a Justice League movie.

[Quintus 6,495]

The huge secrecy surrounding Superman (how refreshing is that, eh?) might end up paying dividends.

[Matt C 605]

In terms of domestic box office, I think Iron Man 3 will be the clear summer winner, with Star Trek: Into Darkness a close second and possibly Despicable Me 2 and Man of Steel sharing third place. Even though Iron Man 2 disappointed some, The Avengers revived interest in the franchise again. I honestly don't see Monsters University being a massive hit... it'll do terrific due to the Pixar brand, but people were definitely burnt on the horrific Cars 2 (an unnecessary sequel) and I question why Pixar would make a prequel to a movie that doesn't need one. Time will only tell.

Loser of the summer will be The Lone Ranger. That trouble behind-the-scenes with budgetary issues, and the marketing itself isn't doing a great job of selling it as a "must-see." More like a "must-miss." I'd be shocked if this did well. Another runner-up bomb would be After Earth, World War Z and hopefully Hangover Part III.

[JoeinAR 1,957]

Matt it is a statistical unlikelyhood for 2 films to get the exact same boxoffice total.

I'm wondering how 3D will effect the boxoffice this summer.

[#SnowyVernalSpringsEternal 12,386]

I did, I predicted it.

I knew also Skyfall was gonna be big. Never thought it would reach 1 billion though

[JoeinAR 1,957]

me either, I just figured it would have no trouble reaching the unreached 200 million. I though 300 was within reach.

[#SnowyVernalSpringsEternal 12,386]

Unreached?

200 million is very reachable for a Bond film

[Jay 46,242]

You know that no James Bond filmed had ever crossed $200M in the US before Skyfall, right?

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/franchises/chart/?id=jamesbond.htm

[#SnowyVernalSpringsEternal 12,386]

Oh sorry. I didnt realize Joe was talking domestic numbers.

[crocodile 9,724]

Domestic, in this case, wouldn't be US, actually.

Karol

[Jay 46,242]

Globally, all the James Bond films have been making $300M since Goldeneye, and all the Daniel Craig ones have made $500M+ each

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_James_Bond_films#Box_office

[#SnowyVernalSpringsEternal 12,386]

Domestic, in this case, wouldn't be US, actually.

Karol

Why not? the Bond films are basically Hollywood films.

[crocodile 9,724]

How dare you? It's a British national heritage!

Karol

[#SnowyVernalSpringsEternal 12,386]

Created by a New Yorker and someone from Kanadia?

[crocodile 9,724]

America is British heritage too!

Karol

[#SnowyVernalSpringsEternal 12,386]

Thanks a lot England!

[KK 3,313]

Canada is still a proud member of the Commonwealth!

[JoeinAR 1,957]

Oh sorry. I didnt realize Joe was talking domestic numbers.

I don't really talk about global numbers, they are hard to track, the timing and dates are not always the same, The US counts from Friday to Thursday. the films in the poll are US release dates only. Some may coincide with Foreign release dates but I don't know that. I use the Comingsoon.net calendar.

I know Iron Man 3 is tracking better than Avenger's apparently and should open with at least 125 million but the 200 million mark is not out of the realm of possibilities. It opens a week earlier overseas and good word of mouth can only fuel it's take, bad word of mouth will slow it little, at least until the 2nd week.

[Not Mr. Big 5,011]

Disney's Planes for sure.

[Ollie 1,375]

Iron Man 3 should get an Avengers boost and run over $300 mil, Monsters Inc should be another successful Pixar film somewhere around $240 mil.

Pacific Rim could be a surprise hit or one of the big flops of the summer. It will probably fall somewhere in between, good fun film with solid box office.

Star Trek could go either way, it seems that they have kept a lot under wraps for this film. I still don't think Trek has the overall appeal of Star Wars to movie audiences but it should still equal the 2009 film's box office.

As far as the rest of the films on the list, I can see a bunch of them doing $100 mil +, with a few having the potential to go over $200 mil, or tanking. Kick Ass 2 and Wolverine are 2 that come to mind.

However the big film is Man Of Steel, with Nolan on board and moviegoers remembering Snyder for 300, I think it will be the big winner this summer. I'll be honest and say the film's previews have done nothing to interest me but the film has a solid cast and Nolan behind the scenes.

However I hope they did something Nolan didn't do with Batman and that's bring some fun to this film. As good as Nolan's last two Dark Night films were, they lacked fun, not campy fun, but fun.

Warner Bros needs this film to succeed to keep pace with Marvel's success, who know how to handle their superheroes, even with a few less than stellar efforts.

If it tanks I wonder if this could be the end of the red caped one for quite some time on the big screen.

[publicist 4,650]

Loser of the summer will be The Lone Ranger. That trouble behind-the-scenes with budgetary issues, and the marketing itself isn't doing a great job of selling it as a "must-see."

Marketing didn't sell Iron Man 3, Star Trek: Into Darkness, Despicable Me 2 or Man of Steel, either. I need these movies like a second asshole, but even with a lot of goodwill, i found the trailers as interesting as reading 20 -year old employment ads.

[Brónach 1,330]

Heheheh. And a lot of the general mediocrity at marketing films doesn't help either.

Of all the films listed up there the only I'm crazy about seeing is Elysium.

I might end up seeing Pac Rim, Man of Steel, or something else as well.

[JoeinAR 1,957]

Elysium has all the appeal of the communist manifesto. The trailer doesn't sell me.

[Ollie 1,375]

Some of those films don't need a huge marketing push. the titles / franchises alone can sell them.

[Brónach 1,330]

Elysium has all the appeal of the communist manifesto. The trailer doesn't sell me.

What's hilarious is the mount of butthurt people complaining on the Internet about the theme of the film for some odd reason. Who dares making an action film about class and inmigration! Outrageous!

[JoeinAR 1,957]

Elysium has all the appeal of the communist manifesto. The trailer doesn't sell me.

What's hilarious is the mount of butthurt people complaining on the Internet about the theme of the film for some odd reason. Who dares making an action film about class and inmigration! Outrageous!

yesh like it's a new idea. After District 9 I'm not sure I want to follow this director.

[Brónach 1,330]

I thought District 9 was *awesome*.

yesh like it's a new idea.

What do you have in mind?

[alicebrallice 134]

I thought District 9 was *awesome*.

+1

I love the score too

[Quintus 6,495]

What's wrong with District 9? Unless fresh film making isn't your thing.

[KK 3,313]

District 9 is a great film and I eagerly await Elysium.

[crocodile 9,724]

I thought the first half of District 9 was pretty good. The latter half was like everything else.

Karol

[Brónach 1,330]

It was quite unique all the way through. It uses lots of recognizable tropes and references but it never felt to me like, you know, "Hollywood" in the bad sense. Probably a big part of that is the main character. Also the fun mix of violence, satire, very dark humour, body horror and mockumentary parts.

[crocodile 9,724]

I was referring to the fact the second half has only shooting, explosions and screaming. It gets really boring after 10 minutes.

Karol

[Brónach 1,330]

After 10 minutes it started to feel hilarious. The alien weaponry goes from lethal to unnecesarily lethal to just why the hell did they need that kind of firepower?

[Quintus 6,495]

I was referring to the fact the second half has only shooting, explosions and screaming. It gets really boring after 10 minutes.

Karol

It was mounted in a way which felt atypical to me though, unlike the regular genericism you refer to.

[crocodile 9,724]

The whole premise and in fact the whole first half is really brilliant, I agree.

Karol

[JoeinAR 1,957]

District 9 is a great film and I eagerly await Elysium.

That is not a consensus. As a travellog it say stay away from South Africa what a disgusting place. As a film it offered nothing really new, Alien Nation in the dump. The make up was good.

[hornist 1,261]

Great list of new movies. I'm sure I will skip all of them.

Maybe will watch the Man of Steel later on Blu.

[#SnowyVernalSpringsEternal 12,386]

Wipe that smug smile of your face!

[BLUMENKOHL 1,110]

I think it will domestically play out like so:

1. Iron Man 3 (400-475M)
2. Monster's University (295-400M)
3. Man of Steel (275-375M)
4. World War Z (225-325M)
5. Star Trek Into Darkness (200-285M)

I'm not certain about the numbers, but I think the final order will be very close to that.

[#SnowyVernalSpringsEternal 12,386]

Yeah I dont see any summer film reaching anything close to 1 billion.