JW's Oscar prospects

[indy4 160]

Last time JW wasn't nominated for a dramatic film was Stepmom in 1998 (and that year he still got a nomination for SPR). I think he will definitely be nominated. I cautiously predict he'll win. His chances seem to be better than last year. As far as I know there are no films that feature music really prominently that would provide big competition (of course I didn't know about the Artist until later in the year). Lincoln has the restraint that War Horse didn't (and that seemed to be the main complaint with War Horse's score). The Hobbit may not be eligible, given the music from LotR and Plan 9's involvement. And there's no second JW score to split the vote (like Tintin).

As a reminder for our predictions last year...

In late September, 63% of us thought Williams would win for War Horse.

But by late January, only 17% of us thought he would win.

[filmmusic 3,269]

For me, "Anna Karenina" has the most chances of winning this year..

(that is, if the academy is sane, and doesn't give the Oscar to some random score coming from nowhere just because the film was nominated in other major categories)

[Maurizio 6,913]

Reasoning by the Academy's logic, I think this year JW has the best chance to win the statuette since Schindler's List and Saving Private Ryan. The movie appears to be one of the real major contender and this increases a lot the opportunity to see the work recognized (remember that even the Best Score award is substantially a prize to the movie first and foremost).

It's probably too early to make predictions, but I guess this could be a likely forecast for the Best Score category frontrunners:

Anna Karenina (Dario MarianellI)

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Howard Shore)

Life of Pi (Mychael Danna)

Lincoln (John Williams)

Rise of the Guardians (Alexandre Desplat)

Other strong contenders are:

Argo (Alexandre Desplat--could be ineligible due to extensive use of pre-existing tracked cues)

Hitchcock (Danny Elfman)

The Impossible (Fernando Velazquez)

The Master (Jonny Greenwood)

Moonrise Kingdom (Desplat)

Zero Dark Thirty (Desplat)

It could very well be that Desplat will end up with two noms, maybe in lieu of Marianelli's Anna Karenina or Danna's Life of Pi.

[BloodBoal 8,711]

[KK 3,313]

I'd keep Life of Pi and maybe replace Rise of the Guardians with The Impossible.

To be honest, I think Williams' chances for the Oscar are pretty good this year.

The competition is Williams Lincoln and Velazquez's The Impossible (which has a very strong chance of winning).

[Romão 2,473]

The nominations will probably look like this, knowing the Academy tendencies:

Lincoln- John Williams

Argo - Alexandre Desplat (this will be his nomination this year)

Anna Karenina - Dario Marianelli

The Master - Johnny Greenwood

I'm not so sure about the 5th spot. I still think Greenwood will win. It's the sort of throway prize the Academy often gives to nominated movies that win little else

[KK 3,313]

it does, but Greenwood never got nominated for There Will Be Blood, so I don't think he's a shoe-in.

[Brónach 1,330]

I haven't precisely gone bollocks over any score this year. Maybe next year.

[Maurizio 6,913]

it does, but Greenwood never got nominated for There Will Be Blood, so I don't think he's a shoe-in.

There Will Be Blood was declared ineligible due to the usage of pre-existing tracks over the course of the film.

While The Master looks like it has more chances to be nominated, I can see the more conservative members of the Music Branch being not too much impressed by the aloof, detached nature of this score.

[BloodBoal 8,711]

[BLUMENKOHL 1,110]

I think he will win this one.

[Koray Savas 2,260]

I had always said that Lincoln was JW's last chance at the Oscar. After finally hearing it, I don't think he'll win.

[filmmusic 3,269]

After finally hearing it, I don't think he'll win.

[crocodile 9,724]

In any case, his best chance in years.

Karol

[hornist 1,261]

Lincoln won't be nominated.

[crocodile 9,724]

Why not?

Karol

[Quintus 6,494]

Because this will be the year of the sandpaper soundscape.

[Koray Savas 2,260]

It'll be nominated but it won't win.

[Taikomochi 1,460]

I'm surprised nobody has mentioned Beasts of the Southern Wild. It's one of the Oscar frontrunners, and the score is very unique, for good or bad. Considering how noticeable it is in the film, I wouldn't be surprised if it won. The way I read critics mention it reminded me a lot of how The Social Network's score was talked about.

[hornist 1,261]

Why not?

Karol

Because the academy is full of unconscious people.

[filmmusic 3,269]

It's sad that nowadays the word "unique" in film music (and I'm not referring to you Taikomochi but the general notion that prevails), means "unique in orchestration".

because there's nothing unique about harmony and melody which are the 2 most important attributes of music.

[gkgyver 1,647]

Last time JW wasn't nominated for a dramatic film was Stepmom in 1998 (and that year he still got a nomination for SPR). I think he will definitely be nominated. I cautiously predict he'll win. His chances seem to be better than last year. As far as I know there are no films that feature music really prominently that would provide big competition

Since when in the past years does the Academy dig scores that are featured prominently in the film?

It's the same thing every year Williams composed scores. Someone asks if JW will win, many are optimistic, the day before the ceremony many are already jubilant, then some strange dude wins, and everyone goes "Who the fuck is that?"

No Oscar for Johnny.

[indy4 160]

Last time JW wasn't nominated for a dramatic film was Stepmom in 1998 (and that year he still got a nomination for SPR). I think he will definitely be nominated. I cautiously predict he'll win. His chances seem to be better than last year. As far as I know there are no films that feature music really prominently that would provide big competition

Since when in the past years does the Academy dig scores that are featured prominently in the film?

The Artist.

[gkgyver 1,647]

Last time JW wasn't nominated for a dramatic film was Stepmom in 1998 (and that year he still got a nomination for SPR). I think he will definitely be nominated. I cautiously predict he'll win. His chances seem to be better than last year. As far as I know there are no films that feature music really prominently that would provide big competition

Since when in the past years does the Academy dig scores that are featured prominently in the film?

The Artist.

The Artist was an exception because it's the concept of the film that made the score. It was like "Hey, what a lovely retro concept!"

[Taikomochi 1,460]

It's sad that nowadays the word "unique" in film music (and I'm not referring to you Taikomochi but the general notion that prevails), means "unique in orchestration".

because there's nothing unique about harmony and melody which are the 2 most important attributes of music.

Well, I don't really think it's unique, but it seems it has been taken that way critically. The Social Network or Babel or Slumdog Millionaire, etc., capitalized on previously existing styles but, for some reason, the academy took them as "fresh" and "new".

[Koray Savas 2,260]

Just because something isn't orchestrated traditionally doesn't mean it's not featured prominently in the film. The Social Network was as prominent as How To Train Your Dragon.

[indy4 160]

Here's a prediction:

1. Mychael Danna, Life of Pi

2. John Williams, Lincoln

3. Dario Marianelli, Anna Karenina

4. Alexandre Desplat, Moonrise Kingdom

5. Dan Romer & Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild

http://www.indiewire.com/article/television/2013-oscar-predictions-best-original-score#

[Not Mr. Big 5,011]

It doesn't have a chance in hell of winning nor does it deserve to. It doesn't deserve to join the ranks of Jaws, Star Wars, E.T. and Schindler's List (I don't really count Fiddler on the Roof).

[Brónach 1,330]

I haven't precisely gone bollocks over any score this year. Maybe next year.

Stupid! You have John Carter of Mars to drool over!

[Koray Savas 2,260]

Go to sleep, crazy lady...

[KK 3,313]

Here's a prediction:

1. Mychael Danna, Life of Pi

2. John Williams, Lincoln

3. Dario Marianelli, Anna Karenina

4. Alexandre Desplat, Moonrise Kingdom

5. Dan Romer & Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild

http://www.indiewire...original-score#

Switch up the last one with The Impossible and I think that's a pretty likely list.

[Max 154]

I'd like to see Michael Giacchino's John Carter be nominated, but given the film's reception, I doubt that'll happen. I still think it's an excellent score.

[mrbellamy 8,234]

He'll definitely be nominated. The movie is bound to get nominated for Best Picture and he's never missed a nomination for scoring a Best Picture nominee.

Whether or not he can win, I think it's certainly his best shot in years. It kind of depends on how many other scores for Best Picture nominees end up in the category, since that's where the winners have been going lately.

[indy4 160]

"Experts" expect Lincoln to win best score:

http://www.goldderby.com/stats/experts/oscars-2012-nominations/best-score.html

[Miguel Andrade 1,725]

It's a nice thought... but I wouldn't put my money in such a bet!

[BloodBoal 8,711]

[Richard P 5,302]

Lincoln will be nominated for everything major, I'm sure. JW is a lock-in.

Definitely his best chance of winning in years, but I don't consider it the best score of the year. I enjoyed Brave much more actually, but that's not going to get a look-in as the film didn't much of a splash.

[crocodile 9,724]

"Experts"? Who the fuck are they? I'd like to know.

I'd like to see Michael Giacchino's John Carter be nominated, but given the film's reception, I doubt that'll happen. I still think it's an excellent score.

+1.

I wouldn't give it an Oscar, but the score is very enjoyable indeed and among the very best of 2012. In fact I still think it is Giacchino's best feature film work.

Karol - who can actually see Lincoln winning (and that has nothing to do with it being good or not)

[Maurizio 6,913]

Well, the fact that Lincoln IS a good score also helps its potential...

[Richard P 5,302]

I can definitely see it winning. I just think it was more merited for War Horse.

[indy4 160]

I prefer War Horse, but both are good scores and I would be incredibly happy if JW won. I also think this is his best chance since CMIYC in 2003.

[mrbellamy 8,234]

Unsurprisingly, Lincoln made the list of 104 eligible scores for Oscar consideration: http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/2012/12/10/104-original-scores-in-2012-oscar-race/

[indy4 160]

THe Hobbit also made it.

[mrbellamy 8,234]

Yes! I'm slightly surprised, but glad to see it on there. Hopefully a nomination will follow

[Muad'Dib 2,059]

I wonder if winning an Oscar at this point would impulse more offerts for non-Spielberg projects...

[indy4 160]

Or maybe it would give JW a sense of closure in his film music career, and he'll stop composing for films altogether (I doubt it, just playing devil's advocate here)

[filmmusic 3,269]

I wouldn't like for Williams' last Oscar to be for a music which is not as good as his previous Oscar awarded scores.

And since I 'm thinking it would be difficult for him to write a score now that will surpass Jaws, Star Wars, E.T. and Schindler's List, I think it would be better left at those ones..

Of course this era we're living in, is not so much offered for one to write an iconic score, because we haven't the movies that require an iconic score.

WEll, yes, we're expecting Superman, but still, its style will be - I assume - far from the classical Hollywood style..

[gkgyver 1,647]

I wouldn't like for Williams' last Oscar to be for a music which is not as good as his previous Oscar awarded scores.

And since I 'm thinking it would be difficult for him to write a score now that will surpass Jaws, Star Wars, E.T. and Schindler's List, I think it would be better left at those ones..

Are we picky?

You'd rather have Williams not win an Oscar because the score is not as good as Star Wars or Schindler's List? You must be joking!

I feel Life Of Pi will win.

[filmmusic 3,269]

hmmm... never mind..

(post deleted)

[nightscape94 968]

Williams being nominated is a foregone conclusion, but he won't win. The score is not really present in the film with the exception some of the fiddle-esque parts. There are sparse moments of reflectiveness, but this is a very subdued score within the confines of the film. I don't see him winning, or being a favorite in any way. It'll simply be a formality that he garners a nomination.