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How much will the new Indiana Jones film make?


Americentric Poll #1  

35 members have voted

  1. 1. In what approximate range will the domestic box office gross of 'Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull' fall? (In USD)

    • Less than $100 million
      1
    • $100 million to $199 million
      3
    • $200 million to $299 million
      12
    • $300 million to $399 million
      10
    • $400 million to $499 million
      5
    • $500 million to $599 million
      1
    • $600 million or greater
      3


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For reference, the unadjusted domestic box office grosses for previous Indiana Jones films are as follows:

Raiders of the Lost Ark - $230,329,080 (Estimated budget - $18 million)

Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom - $175,083,524 (Estimated budget - $28 million)

Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade - $197,171,806 (Estimated budget - $48 million)

The estimated budget for the new film is $125 million.

Source: Internet Movie Database

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$200-$300 million is the base amount....if it's particularly notable, perhaps more.

It will make 250 million + in the USA at least.

It won't go anywere near ROTK or Titanic figures though.

There's a big difference between RoTK and Titanic figures.

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This film should gross over $200 million but I don't see it going over $300 million based on the past sequels and Spielberg's recent box office history. Throw in Ford's declining star status and possible anti-Lucas backlash as well.

I don't think IJ is the household name that some think it is.

There is a possibility it could be a big hit because it will be the first big film out of the gates I believe and if it does actually turn out to be good word of mouth help.

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Throw in Ford's declining star status and possible anti-Lucas backlash as well.

Anti-Lucas backlash - from whom?

We may hate him as music geeks, and I doubt the rest of the world does. I agree that Ford's nothing like the star he used to be though. I reckon the film will do well, but not set any kinds of records. I'm also a tad sceptical about the casting of LaBeouf. He looks a little young for the role, what with that moustache, but I guess we'll see.

On a sort of related note, does anyone know how much time JW had to write the score? We heard something about him starting in October, and of course we know when they recorded, but apart from that... ?

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He started writing in October, he recorded in February....I don't see where the question is. He had at least that amount of time to write it.

And it is my sense that Lucas is disliked throughout. Sure, you have your pockets of prequel fans...but they are the exception, rather than the norm.

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Yes, but I don't think Star Wars fans are going to let Lucas prevent them from seeing this. Many people may hate Lucas, but they're still probably going to see the movie. 'Course, any big money past the opening day is dependent on if the film is actually good.

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And it is my sense that Lucas is disliked throughout. Sure, you have your pockets of prequel fans...but they are the exception, rather than the norm.

But his genuine dislike by the mere 'fans' will do nothing to harm the box office of this, or any other movie for that matter. Don't be silly.

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And it is my sense that Lucas is disliked throughout. Sure, you have your pockets of prequel fans...but they are the exception, rather than the norm.

But his genuine dislike by the mere 'fans' will do nothing to harm the box office of this, or any other movie for that matter. Don't be silly.

I was not talking about the film's grosses. He is not liked by anyone, aside from prequel fans. Of course the rest of the world couldn't care less.

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He started writing in October, he recorded in February....I don't see where the question is. He had at least that amount of time to write it.

Just wondered whether any of our 'insiders' had any more accurate ideas. Oh well.

Get realistic with Lucas people - the average person on the street probably doesn't even know who he is. People will see this movie.

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Of course...the average person doesn't know anything about anyone in the film industry. But the majority of those who do know of Lucas, dislike him.

Ah my misunderstanding as a result of a Lucas comment further up the page. Your post appeared to be in the same context as the earlier one.

BTW, your signature made me laugh more than I have in a week. Thanks!

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This film should gross over $200 million but I don't see it going over $300 million based on the past sequels and Spielberg's recent box office history. Throw in Ford's declining star status and possible anti-Lucas backlash as well.

I don't think IJ is the household name that some think it is.

There is a possibility it could be a big hit because it will be the first big film out of the gates I believe and if it does actually turn out to be good word of mouth help.

Not only is Kingdom of the Crystal Skull not the first big film out of the gates this summer -- that would be Iron Man -- but it's not even the second. It also opens after Prince Caspian; and if Speed Racer somehow manages to catch on, Indy 4 will be the fourth one.

I don't know that any of that will hurt Indy, though. If Iron Man is a huge hit . . . well, it's a Paramount movie, and I'm guessing there'll be a second (and final) trailer for Crystal Skull attached to it, so that would be tons of free marketing. Speed Racer seems to be an outside shot at being a hit, so it's probably not a factor.

Prince Caspian, though, is a potential spoiler. The first Narnia movie was a big hairy hit, and if this one builds on its audience in the same way the Pirates franchise did from 1 to 2 (and that's obviously what Disney is going for), then it could very likely demolish Indy in the same way that Dead Man's Chest demolished Superman Returns.

I'm a little worried. I work at a theatre, and I'm just not hearing people sound excited about the movie in the that you might expect/hope. I can definitely see the movie being a financial disappointment.

Yes, of course. The world at large doesn't care about George Lucas. The world doesn't even know who he is. All the world knows is that the Star Wars prequels weren't so great, but that Indiana Jones is not Star Wars.

I'd say that, judging from the box office, the world actually thought that the prequels were pretty damned good.

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I'm a little worried. I work at a theatre, and I'm just not hearing people sound excited about the movie in the that you might expect/hope. I can definitely see the movie being a financial disappointment.

Yes I've been saying that for over a year. People just don't seem excited about a 4th IJ film outside of this message board.

Didn't realize IJ wasn't going to be the first big film out. Truthfully I haven't payed attention to the other film's release dates.

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I'd like to see Ford and Spielberg have a $300 million box office hit. Jurassic Park is the last really big hit Spielberg had.

Air Force One was Ford's last big film.

But I think my reasoning in threads above hold some truth. I hope I'm wrong.

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Well, over here, they haven't even started showing the teasers yet. But I suspect as people see the trailer (which I hope for the film's sake will come ASAP), they'll get more excited about it. But I do think there is a buzz about it online. No as huge as I would've thought a few years ago....but it's pretty solid. AICN and diggit have been fairly consistant in posting every little tidbit.

Would've liked an old fashioned ad-campaign, though. Either way, I don't see it opening quietly. It's gonna be big news when it hits.

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I predict $300 mill.+; it will be the highest grossing of the indy films, simply because there's not just interest, but great nostalgia involved, for all of us who grew up with these films. Add to that the fact that Spielberg will give us one heck of an entertaining film, and I don't see how it can go wrong, even with a severely impaired George Lucas on board.

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What it makes opening weekend will have say in how the film does the rest of the summer.

I'll say anything under $75 million and it might not make it to $200.

I'm thinking it'll fall somewhere between Catch Me If You Can (~$160M) and War of the Worlds (~$230M). I'd love for it to be a bigger hit, though.

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It's certainly going to appeal to older audiences, people who grew up with the original films. But with those you get families, and youngsters being introduced to Indiana Jones. The family demographic could earn the movie some major money.

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I don't think IJ is the household name that some think it is.

Yeah,when they show the trailer in the cinema younger people ask who's that guy?

I pity the audience you saw it with. He's quite well-known here, even with the youngsters who believe Friday after Next is the greatest movie ever.

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400 - 499. Part of this is because the cost of movie tickets have gone up with inflation--it's not so hard to earn a lot of cash as it was when the OT came out. Also, there's going to be a huge pent up of nostalgia for those who grew up with Indy, and I think it'll attract some of the younger crowd as well.

One thing all Indy films have that most action films don't have these days is a light-hearted feel to them. Take The Bourne Trilogy, for example. The whole thing feels dark and depressing, no matter how cool the stunts may be. Way too dramatic for my taste, it seems like it's trying unsuccesfully to be both a popcorn movie and a dramatic one. I have no problem when those two genres mix (Big Fish was a fabulous example of that), but Bourne does so unsuccesfully.

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That is a given. Lucas does not like to take chances with anything new.

GL takes a lot of chances.Jar jar and other silly things...

I meant that the movie is surely getting all the money they spent on it, plus something more. therefore profitable.

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I say $200-$300 million domestic. Anything less or more than that would be pushing it. It could be a record hit a la Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest, but I don't think so. The marketing, demand, word-of-mouth and the actual film itself will determine its gross.

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400 - 499.

False

it's not so hard to earn a lot of cash as it was when the OT came out.

ABSOLUTELY false. The market is a hundred times more diverse than when the OT came out. Money is worth less, but there's also way more movies out there for people to watch, which means less money per movie. Factor in DVDs...and well, box office success is actually MORE difficult now.

Also, there's going to be a huge pent up of nostalgia for those who grew up with Indy, and I think it'll attract some of the younger crowd as well.

Nostalgia has always been in the equation for ho-hum box office in almost every franchise that has laid dormant. Star Wars is the exception, not the rule. It had the strong foundation to begin with. Not so much Indy.

One thing all Indy films have that most action films don't have these days is a light-hearted feel to them. Take The Bourne Trilogy, for example. The whole thing feels dark and depressing, no matter how cool the stunts may be. Way too dramatic for my taste, it seems like it's trying unsuccesfully to be both a popcorn movie and a dramatic one. I have no problem when those two genres mix (Big Fish was a fabulous example of that), but Bourne does so unsuccesfully.

Light-hearted doesn't neccessarily mean success.

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ABSOLUTELY false. The market is a hundred times more diverse than when the OT came out. Money is worth less, but there's also way more movies out there for people to watch, which means less money per movie. Factor in DVDs...and well, box office success is actually MORE difficult now.

But somebody on this board once said that a lot more people see movies in theatres now (more as a socializing event, I think, than for the actual film) then in the 80s. I forget the excact statistics, but it was pretty significant. And I think that this combined with the inflation costs is enough to overpower all the factors you mentioned that are working against it. I understand it may not reach 400-499 thousand bucks, but I still think it will gross more than the other films.

Nostalgia has always been in the equation for ho-hum box office in almost every franchise that has laid dormant. Star Wars is the exception, not the rule. It had the strong foundation to begin with. Not so much Indy.

The Original Trilogy for Indy isn't a strong foundation? :)

Light-hearted doesn't neccessarily mean success.

Yeah, that was just my personal opinion for why I'm really excited for it. It probably won't affect the gross too much.

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Adjusting for inflated ticket prices doesn't tell the true story, you really need to count the number of tickets sold.

There are more movies, more screens and if a film starts losing it's sales the theatre will pull it. Plus it's gonna have competition, I didn't realize Narnia II and Iron Man would open before IJ4. A majority of the IJ fans will probably go the first 2 weekends.

So does anyone want to predict the opening weekend? Opens May 22nd which is the Memorial Day holiday.

I'm gonna predict $89 million and I'm being a bit generous.

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I think the movie has a shot of hitting $300 million. It'll more likely be in the high $200 range, but it could very well be far beyond that. It'll hit $250 rather easily, though, no matter how much it's liked.

Ted

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