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It's fake. No question.

AFAIK, no master list is compiled before the ceremony. A quick google reveals all.

But JNH for Defiance? Wonder who compiled this one and whether they're a fan :angry:

If I was judging solely by the CD contents, I'd say it's award worthy, even if not oscar. The reason I mention the CD is that the extra cues in the promo don't really add much to the experience for me, and the action cues almost sound autopilot. But then some of the quieter cues on the CD are simply beautiful, if a little clichéd.

He definitely deserves an oscar, but just like I don't want JW winning for the IMO 'standard' KotCS, I'd love to see him be recognised perhaps for an M.Night score.

I think though, that unless there is universal agreement that one of Slumdog's songs was best, Newman will get his first oscar tonight, even if not for scoring.

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I'm still not so sure that Slumdog Millionaire will sweep so easily in the best score category. Keep in mind that the Babel win really upset the Music Branch and the Slumdog situation is not so dissimilar, even though the use of pre-existing material is less detrimental in this case.

If Slumdog will sweep in the major categories like it appears to be, it could happen that the voters left some of the lesser categories to other films. My money is on Thomas Newman or Alexandre Desplat.

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Here's an excerpt from an interview with Charles Bernstein (Governor of the Academy Music Branch committee) in which he talks about the Babel snafu:

Q: The winner of 2006 was Babel, which contained a lot of unoriginal material from different sources.

A: The score for Babel was very controversial. Gustavo Santaollala wrote some very effective music. Unfortunately one of the most effective pieces was not written for the movie. I believe it was originally recorded for a CD and it was placed into the movie from there. Unfortunately when we checked its eligibility, his name appeared for all the pieces he composed as the music he wrote prior to the movie. It got by the committee that this particular piece pre-existed and nobody up to that point was familiar with it as such.

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What the hell?

That piece (if he's indeed referring to Iguazu, which was admittedly effective and quite a nice piece on its own) was prominently used in The Insider (a Best-Picture nominee, no less!) as well as the pilot of 24 and several episodes of Deadwood.

How this gets by the bloody Academy Music Branch is beyond me.

Idiots!

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I decided I should listen to this Iguazu piece (not really that great IMO), and not only was it labelled as being from the Deadwood soundtrack, but I also remember this as being the piece used during the oscar nominations clips!

Given that they thought the best music to represent the score wasn't even written for it, shows what a calamitous blunder they really made last year.

I don't like most of the Slumdog 'score', but at least it was written for the movie!

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These are my bets:

Best Picture - Slumdog Millionaire

Best Director - David Fincher

Best Actor - Mickey Rourke

Best Actress - Kate Winslet

Best Supporting Actor - Heath Ledger

Best Supporting Actress - Penélope Cruz

Best Original Screenplay - Wall-E

Best Adapted Screenplay - Slumdog Millionaire

They are the safest bets I could come up with, and I would disagree with the Academy a lot if I turned out to be right. I didn't name the movies that the director/actors would be winning for because the Academy doesn't care what movie they are awarding. All voters see is the name.

EDIT: Actually, Wall-E for best screenplay is personal wishful thinking. Milk is taking that bad boy.

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Michael Shannon is the dark horse of the bunch for his scene-stealing turn in REVOLUTIONARY ROAD.

Hitch, who won't be watching the Oscars LIVE tonight. My first time in over 20 years not watching them live.

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Frankly I'd rather Robert Downey win for his supporting role in Tropic Thunder. I don't want to see a sympathy win for Ledger.

It wouldn't be a sympathy win. This is coming from somebody who anticipated Ledger's performance since he saw the trailer at I Am Legend in '07, before he died.

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Okay, here goes:

BEST PICTURE

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Frost/Nixon

Milk

The Reader

Slumdog Millionaire

We can nix THE READER and FROST/NIXON. BUTTON wouldn't be bad, but it won't beat SLUMDOG or MILK. SLUMDOG has been getting more and more buzz lately, but somehow, I just don't think the Academy will award it here. It'll get almost everything else, but I think MILK has this one in the bag.

SHOULD WIN: Slumdog Millionaire

WILL WIN: Milk

BEST DIRECTOR

Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire

David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon

Stephen Daldry, The Reader

Gus Van Sant, Milk

We can automatically rule out Howard and Daldry (who nominated those guys, anyway?). Fincher would be nice, but doesn't seem likely to beat out Van Sant or Boyle. If Boyle wins, he'll certainly be getting it for his best film, but Van Sant could very easily steal it. Fortunately, they both deserve it. I must note: how Chris Nolan (THE DARK KNIGHT) and Clint Eastwood (CHANGELING) were not nominated here is beyond me.

SHOULD WIN: Danny Boyle or Gus Van Sant

WILL WIN: Danny Boyle

BEST ACTOR

Richard Jenkins, The Visitor

Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon

Sean Penn, Milk

Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Jenkins' nomination is welcome, but he doesn't have a chance against the others. Pitt and Langella both put forth strong performances, but neither have the buzz of Rourke's or Penn's. I'd love for Rourke to get it (and he does deserve it), but we all know how much the Academy looooves Sean Penn (though Penn's performance isn't bad either).

SHOULD WIN: Mickey Rourke

WILL WIN: Sean Penn

BEST ACTRESS

Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married

Angelina Jolie, Changeling

Melissa Leo, Frozen River

Meryl Streep, Doubt

Kate Winslet, The Reader

Kate is going to win. I just really wish it was for any other movie she's done but this one. ANY one.

SHOULD AND WILL WIN: Kate Winslet

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Josh Brolin, Milk

Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight

Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder

Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt

Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

Shannon was good, but doesn't have a shot against his competition; Downey Jr. was amusing, but he's not even in the same league as the others in this case. As good as Brolin and Hoffman were, neither of them can touch the performance we all knew was going to take it home this year.

SHOULD AND WILL WIN: Heath Ledger

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Adams, Doubt

Penélope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Viola Davis, Doubt

Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

Tomei would be nice, but she won't get it; Davis and Henson both had strong performances, but not Oscar worthy. I hope with every fiber of my being that Cruz DOES NOT win, but the Academy has some kind of fascination with her and I can totally see them snubbing Adams. Boo!

SHOULD WIN: Amy Adams

WILL WIN: Penélope Cruz

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Frozen River, Courtney Hunt

Happy-Go-Lucky, Mike Leigh

In Bruges, Martin McDonagh

Milk, Dustin Lance Black

WALL-E, Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon, Pete Docter

Wall-E would be nice, the the Academy would never award such a choice. MILK certainly wouldn't be unexpected, but the other nominees have more writing buzz and with all the attention that IN BRUGES has gotten recently, it seems like a lock. Still, Happy Go-Lucky would be nice.

SHOULD WIN: Happy Go-Lucky

WILL WIN: In Bruges

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Eric Roth

Doubt, John Patrick Shanley

Frost/Nixon, Peter Morgan

The Reader, David Hare

Slumdog Millionaire, Simon Beaufoy

We can nix DOUBT and THE READER (hopefully). FROST/NIXON is good, but doesn't have the clout of BUTTON or SLUMDOG. I would love to see either of these two win, but SLUMDOG seems likely to sweep this one.

SHOULD WIN: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button OR Slumdog Millionaire

WILL WIN: Slumdog Millionaire

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Bolt

Kung Fu Panda

WALL-E

Is this even a contest? Please, Academy: do the right thing.

SHOULD AND WILL WIN: Wall-E.

BEST ART DIRECTION

Changeling

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

The Dark Knight

The Duchess

Revolutionary Road

Really tough. THE DARK KNIGHT probably doesn't have a shot against its competition. THE DUCHESS pretty much already has a lock for costume design, but ROAD and CHANGELING are so similar that it's likely they'll split the vote. A pity, especially considering that CHANGELING'S already been snubbed on so many deserved nominations.

SHOULD WIN: Changeling

WILL WIN: The Duchess

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Changeling

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

The Dark Knight

The Reader

Slumdog Millionaire

Both THE READER and DARK KNIGHT are out. THE CHANGELING looks amazing, but doesn't have the picturesque look of BUTTON. I really think this is BB'S most deserved Oscar, but I have a feeling the Academy is going to leave this one to SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE.

SHOULD WIN: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

WILL WIN: Slumdog Millionaire

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Australia

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

The Duchess

Milk

Revolutionary Road

We can rule out MILK and AUSTRALIA; BUTTON and ROAD are great, but both have very similar designs, leading them to likely split the vote. Not that it matters though, because THE DUCHESS trumps them all.

SHOULD AND WILL WIN: The Duchess

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

The Betrayal (Nerakhoon)

Encounters at the End of the World

The Garden

Man on Wire

Trouble the Water

I've seen none of these, so I'm gonna take a guess based purely on synopsis. With that, I find it hard to believe any of the nominated could trump a film on KATRINA.

WILL WIN: Trouble the Water

BEST EDITING

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

The Dark Knight

Frost/Nixon

Milk

Slumdog Millionaire

Very tough. FROST/NIXON is good, but not on the caliber of the others. BUTTON works, but isn't quite as tight as the rest and THE DARK KNIGHT just doesn't beat the remaining two. It really boils down to MILK Vs. SLUMDOG and as well as both of them are cut, MILK lacks the building tension that SLUMDOG has (save for maybe near the end), largely thanks to the film's editing.

SHOULD AND WILL WIN: Slumdog Millionaire

BEST MAKEUP

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

The Dark Knight

Hellboy II: The Golden Army

So it's Button Vs. Joker Vs. Hellboy. All three films certainly have a chance here. Oscar politics would dictate BENJAMIN BUTTON to be the winner, but I have a feeling DARK KNIGHT and BB will split the vote, making HELLBOY victorious (and deservedly so).

SHOULD AND WILL WIN: Hellboy II: The Golden Army

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Alexandre Desplat

Defiance, James Newton Howard

Milk, Danny Elfman

Slumdog Millionaire, A.R. Rahman

WALL-E, Thomas Newman

The Academy will likely ignore Newman, Howard, and Elfman (as they always do, sadly). BUTTON has a wonderfully subtle and emotional score, but I have a sinking feeling the Academy is going to pull a "Santaolalla" and recognize SLUMDOG for perhaps the only award it doesn't deserve.

SHOULD WIN: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

WILL WIN: Slumdog Millionaire

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

''Down to Earth,'' WALL-E

''Jai Ho,'' Slumdog Millionaire

''O Saya,'' Slumdog Millionaire

SLUMDOG could very easily split the vote, shooing WALL-E in for the win. Still, I don't see how SLUMDOG doesn't have this one locked.

SHOULD AND WILL WIN: "Jai Ho," Slumdog Millionaire

BEST SOUND EDITING

The Dark Knight

Iron Man

Slumdog Millionaire

WALL-E

Wanted

The only one of these that even has a chance of taking WALL-E is IRON MAN, and even it falls short here.

SHOULD AND WILL WIN: Wall-E

BEST SOUND MIXING

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

The Dark Knight

Slumdog Millionaire

WALL-E

Wanted

SLUMDOG has a dark horse chance here, though once again, I find it hard to believe that any of these could have a chance against a movie that is built entirely upon sound.

SHOULD AND WILL WIN: Wall-E

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

The Dark Knight

Iron Man

IRON MAN may not be the best of the three (in fact, it isn't), but the other two films simply don't offer as much in the way of visual effects. THE DARK KNIGHT boasts only one major sequence (two, if you count the "Bat-Sonar"), while BUTTON'S success lies more in the makeup than in the CGI. I'd love for the Academy to award this on the merit of subtlety, but it ain't gonna happen.

SHOULD WIN: The Dark Knight or The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

WILL WIN: Iron Man

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Sympathy vote or not, I think it was an incredible performance that still deserves to be recognized.

Yes. To be honest his death does help his chances, but that does not mean he shouldn't win or is undeserving. And besides, Ledger's role is just as much of an out of the ordinary nomination than Downey Jr's, both are genre roles in big budgeted summer movies.

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Well I don't know the score, but the 30 second clip they played before reading the winner was awful! A really dreadful little fragment, not interesting enough to be called a melody. Just because it was played on sitar I'm sure the Academy thought, ooh, let's prove how ethno-conscious we are and award this. If the score is as bad as that little clip it's another travesty.

Wall-E was robbed!

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16102006-THN10image2.jpg

One more Oscar to Ilarayaja.

Well I don't know the score, but the 30 second clip they played before reading the winner was awful! A really dreadful little fragment, not interesting enough to be called a melody. Just because it was played on sitar I'm sure the Academy thought, ooh, let's prove how ethno-conscious we are and award this. If the score is as bad as that little clip it's another travesty.

Yes, the whole score is like those 30 seconds.

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16102006-THN10image2.jpg

One more Oscar to Ilarayaja.

Well I don't know the score, but the 30 second clip they played before reading the winner was awful! A really dreadful little fragment, not interesting enough to be called a melody. Just because it was played on sitar I'm sure the Academy thought, ooh, let's prove how ethno-conscious we are and award this. If the score is as bad as that little clip it's another travesty.

Yes, the whole score is like those 30 seconds.

No, the score isn't like those 30 seconds. In fact, the piece played by Giacchino (while nice) was the worst interpretation of the score because the score isn't like the others. A full orchestra is not always used. And it doesn't need it.

There wasn't much original music created for Slumdog but what was there was excellent and more importantly, serviced the film the best. I enjoy the score and really noticed when I saw the movie the second time around, how well it works with the film. Even better than a separate listen.

For the record, I do feel Wall-E should've won it, but I also feel I should stand up for the Slumdog score. It seems that some are too quick to disregard it because it's not technically proficient.

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