The 2012 Summer Box Office Thread

[BloodBoal 7,538]

[Red 75]

I was just gonna bump the thread for teh same reason. I think Bats will have a very, very tough time making as much money as The Avengers will at this point. The film opens in 5 weeks and there's been almost no hype. I saw Avengers tv spots and tie-ins more a long time leading up to its release, and it also had a huge buzz. Bats has got nothing so far apart from some trailers.

TDKR comes out in two months. The marketing blitz will likely begin the first of June.

[indy4 155]

Avengers is at 389 on day 12. On day 12, Avatar only had 250.

[Koray Savas 2,251]

The Dark Knight Rises will have a big opening weekend but it's not gonna have lasting power, I think.

[JoeinAR 1,949]

Avengers is at 389 on day 12. On day 12, Avatar only had 250.

I'm betting that Avatar will end up with the longer legs.

[Quintus 5,399]

Have they gone nuts for The Avengers in the Orient?

[Jay 37,336]

I can't believe no one voted for The Avengers in the poll!

Funny anyone voted for Prometheus. That film was never going to gross $200 million

Does everyone still think The Dark Knight Rises will win the summer, even after The Avengers took in $613million (and counting) domestic?

For the record here are the 8 summer films that have crossed $100million so far

1 Marvel's The Avengers $613,548,000 4-May

2 Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted $203,732,000 8-Jun

3 The Amazing Spider-Man $200,900,000 3-Jul

4 Brave $195,596,000 22-Jun

5 MIB 3 $174,800,000 25-May

6 Ted $158,993,000 29-Jun

7 Snow White and the Huntsman $151,607,000 1-Jun

8 Prometheus $124,269,000 8-Jun

Biggest surprise is Ted, I think. With that box office success, Seth MacFarlane will be able to make whatever films he wants for the next long while.

[Wojo 2,453]

I didn't see The Avengers because I've been saving all my money for TDKR. I haven't been able to afford anything else in this dreadful economy.

[JoeinAR 1,949]

Jason, where are you getting your numbers? I looked at Boxofficmojo this morning and those numbers don't match yours.

Oh OK I see what you did, you added the weekend gross to the totals, but they were already figured in.

[Jay 37,336]

Woops, I didn't realize this weekend's estimates were already added into their Yearly chart. I've corrected my post.

What are your thoughts on this summer's box office, thread starter?

[#SnowyVernalSpringsEternal 10,265]

Why are you guys not taking international box office earnings into consideration?

Globally The Avengers has pulled in $1,457,648,000

[JoeinAR 1,949]

Jason, I would say that you and I are both surprised that the Avengers got no votes and is clearly the top boxoffice winner. I do not see the Dark Knight Rises beating it. I really don't. I do expect the DKR to open huge.

I know I included films I knew did not have chance to win, but I knew had a chance to win a week or two. I'm glad you convinced me to add Madegascar and Ice Age. They did each win their weekend openings.

I was not surprised by Ted, but I think that Prometheus' failure is because it's a mediocre film. If it had been a better film we'd have seen better numbers by it.

There will be 7 films from this spring and summer to break 200 mil. I don't know if that is a record but it's a big number for sure. The 5 films that have hit 200 mil. so far are Hunger Games, Lorax, the Avengers, Madegascar 3, and Spiderman. Brave will hit 200 million next weekend, and so will TDR give or take a day or two. You know that there will be 2 or 3 films hit the 200 million mark in the fall, Breaking Dawn pt 2, The Hobbit pt 1, and probably Skyfall.

Stefan, it's my thread, I've been doing it for years, I've always based it on US boxoffice takes, and these are essentially Hollywood films. I've always gone with US openings. It's not quite the same with international openings. They might be scattered all over the place.

[Romão 2,274]

I don't think will TDKR will outgross The Avengers, but it might actually beat in the number of tickets sold. 3D makes a big difference

[Jay 37,336]

Jason, I would say that you and I are both surprised that the Avengers got no votes and is clearly the top boxoffice winner. I do not see the Dark Knight Rises beating it. I really don't. I do expect the DKR to open huge.

I don't see TDKR beating it either, $600+ is just insane. I don't think anyone predicted before the summer started that The Avengers would make that much. TDKR is longer, darker, and seen as a film that is a conclusion to a saga that you need to have seen the first 2 films to get, while The Avengers was marketed as a film for everyone to see.

I think that Prometheus' failure is because it's a mediocre film. If it had been a better film we'd have seen better numbers by it.

I agree!

You know that there will be 2 or 3 films hit the 200 million mark in the fall, Breaking Dawn pt 2, The Hobbit pt 1, and probably Skyfall.

I don't see Skyfall crossing $200 million. Casino Royale made $167 and Quantum of Solace made $168, but ALL of Daniel Craig's other movies have bombed/ underperformed, and this one is coming out 4 years since the last one (though it feels like longer). I can see it stalling after crossing $100, especially with all the November/December competition this year.

If Skyfall is a really good movie and they get the next one out in 2-3 years from now, I think THAT one could be a big success. Right now it seems like the world is more excited about comic book movies than spy ones. I can't see Bourne 4 doing hardly anything either.

[#SnowyVernalSpringsEternal 10,265]

Skyfall will bring in similar numbers. The performance of Craig's other films have no bearing on this, since this is a Bond film. It's a completely separate entity.

[Wojo 2,453]

TDKR is longer, darker, and seen as a film that is a conclusion to a saga that you need to have seen the first 2 films to get

Um, and so who hasn't seen the first two?

[Jay 37,336]

Skyfall will bring in similar numbers. The performance of Craig's other films have no bearing on this, since this is a Bond film. It's a completely separate entity.

I too think the numbers will be very similar to the first two entries. I actually originally put $150mil in my post before editing it to $100

TDKR is longer, darker, and seen as a film that is a conclusion to a saga that you need to have seen the first 2 films to get

Um, and so who hasn't seen the first two?

I'm sure there was PLENTY of 7-15 year olds who went out and saw The Avengers this summer that have no interest in seeing The Dark Knight Rises.

[#SnowyVernalSpringsEternal 10,265]

TDKR is longer, darker, and seen as a film that is a conclusion to a saga that you need to have seen the first 2 films to get

Um, and so who hasn't seen the first two?

If you compare the box office earnings between BB and TDK, a lot more people say TDK then BB.

[Jay 37,336]

Oh don't get me wrong, The Dark Knight Rises will EASILY make more money at the box office than The Dark Knight did. It will EASILY be one of the top 2 movies of the summer by a wide margin, it's going to make $500+. Will it pass The Avengers $613 or not is the only question.

[Wojo 2,453]

I think it will. I'm just not a betting man.

[Jay 37,336]

It definitely has the potential to, that's for sure

[#SnowyVernalSpringsEternal 10,265]

Easily? Remember that TDK had a huge pre-release hype. Something that seems to be missing from TDKR

[JoeinAR 1,949]

Oh don't get me wrong, The Dark Knight Rises will EASILY make more money at the box office than The Dark Knight did. It will EASILY be the #2 movie of the summer by a wide margin. I'm thinking $400+ if not $500+. I just don't think it will pass the Avengers $613+ mark.

Jason the Dark Knight grossed 533+million. I think it's possible for TDKR to surpass it but will it have legs? Here is my thoughts on this (much like yours). The film is I believe around 162 minutes long, which limits it's number of showing, though The Avengers was a long film as well. It's not in 3D which is a disadvantage but it will be showing in a # of Imax venues. It lacks the dynamic performance and lets face it the free publicity TDK got by Ledger and his demise. However if subsequent reviews are as positive as the first that will help. And people who have seen the trailers know the film looks exceptional. A late summer boxoffice release does narrow the window of boxoffice opportunity. If this film had opened in May we might have had the #1 film of all time.

Still those of us who voted TDKR in this poll may yet be vindicated.

[KK 3,307]

The problem is, The Avengers had 3D on its side. And it reaches out to a larger audience. Considering TDKR isn't so family friendly and it has no 3D on its side, The Avengers already had the head start. But I'm still hoping TDKR beats the pulp out of The Avengers.

[#SnowyVernalSpringsEternal 10,265]

I'd rather just have TDKR be the better film.

It's gonna make a killing. Who cares if it makes more of less then The Avengers?

[Jay 37,336]

I'd rather just have TDKR be the better film.

It's gonna make a killing. Who cares if it makes more of less then The Avengers?

In any other thread, you have a great point. In this specific thread, well - if you don't want to talk box office numbers, don't post in the thread.

[Brónach 1,302]

I think TDKR will make more money than The Avengers but Marvel's saga will end up surpassing Batman's numbers due the sheer excitement that their complex strategy is going to generate among fans.

After the exhilarating cinema experiences that I had going to the movies to see The Dark Knight and Inception, I had thought I should see Chris Nolan's works when they come out, however given the abusive recent increments in taxes I don't I will be going to the cinema (and TDKR was one of the very few films of a year that fulfill all my requirements to go and see it at the cinema). That seems to be the general reaction around here. The other weekend in one of the big ones of the country: no one to be seen. I foresee some cinemas closing due to this. I also imagine some places that project films in their original language will disappear causing me to stop going to the cinema altogether on counted occasions. But they will blame Internet piracy...

[#SnowyVernalSpringsEternal 10,265]

In any other thread, you have a great point. In this specific thread, well - if you don't want to talk box office numbers, don't post in the thread.

Again, I've warned you about this. Don't assume you can tell me what I can or cannot post.

You gonna ban me again for thinking box-office numbers aren't the most important thing in the world?

[Jay 37,336]

I think TDKR will make more money than The Avengers but Marvel's saga will end up surpassing Batman's numbers due the sheer excitement that their complex strategy is going to generate among fans.

What do you mean, you're saying that The Avengers 1-3 combined will make more money than Nolan's Bat-films combined? That's a guarantee!

[JoeinAR 1,949]

I think TDKR will make more money than The Avengers but Marvel's saga will end up surpassing Batman's numbers due the sheer excitement that their complex strategy is going to generate among fans.

there is nothing complex about the Avengers. It's clear to me that Nolan has a better feel for the Bat than Wheedon has for the avengers. Wheedon has to juggle a bunch of heros that really don't have any reason to be together other than IT'S COOL, and sadly it's not.

[#SnowyVernalSpringsEternal 10,265]

Iron Man and Thor should be inhabiting very different universes. To just dump them together like that.....

[Brónach 1,302]

I think TDKR will make more money than The Avengers but Marvel's saga will end up surpassing Batman's numbers due the sheer excitement that their complex strategy is going to generate among fans.

What do you mean, you're saying that The Avengers 1-3 combined will make more money than Nolan's Bat-films combined? That's a guarantee!

I was thinking that a single Marvel film in the future could generate more money than a single Batman film now. But you're right.

It's an hype machine. It has worked well for The Avengers. Now all the people who loved The Avengers like me will be interested in Iron Man 3, Thor 2, Captain America 2 or Guardians of the Galaxy. All these except Captain America could be quite a suprise given some stuff they're doing. All of this will only reinforce the audience for the return of the Avengers (I've come to the conclusion that they will use Thanos plus another villain), which technically should feature the heroes dying horrribly one after another*. An Empire Strikes Back, just harder. The hype post-Avengers 2 would be totally insane.

Then comes Edgar Wright's Ant-Man, which if done right could be a quite unique film, like a sort of 50's sci-fi.

*Also note the death element can be solved thinking fourth dimensionally thanks to the time travel element introduced in Guardians of the Galaxy!

Iron Man and Thor should be inhabiting very different universes. To just dump them together like that.....

I disagree entirely. The transhumanism theme and the technology theme bonds all the heroes together nicely. Specially with this cosmic angle that they're using.

Plus, they play different roles. Thor is The Big Guy, Iron Man is The Lancer.

[Wojo 2,453]

Iron Man and Thor should be inhabiting very different universes. To just dump them together like that.....

You know, you can brush up on your basic history of comic books 101 on Wikipedia anytime you want.

[Quintus 5,399]

I think it's possible for TDKR to surpass it but will it have legs? Here is my thoughts on this (much like yours). The film is I believe around 162 minutes long

Oh Jesus. Count me among those who may wait for the Blu.

[BLUMENKOHL 1,068]

I'd rather just have TDKR be the better film.

It's gonna make a killing. Who cares if it makes more of less then The Avengers?

That's an interesting questioning. But money speaks louder is HEARD more than Stefan Cosman's [loud] opinion. And the success of one over the other could determine the future direction of Super hero films.

That's why so many people care.

[Admiral Holdo 16]

Slightly dated, but I still found it funny:

[Jay 37,336]

Huh, I didn't realize before that each Spider-man film had made less than the last. That's interesting

[Koray Savas 2,251]

Same, I thought each one made more than the last, with the exception of the newest one.

[Wojo 2,453]

That's because the newest one isn't the fourth one, not really. It'd be like calling Batman (1989) the second film, albeit thirty-odd years removed.

[Koray Savas 2,251]

I never called the newest one the fourth one. I called it the newest one

[KK 3,307]

Dark Knight Rises sales fall short of industry forecasts.

And here I was hoping it would beat The Avengers.

[#SnowyVernalSpringsEternal 10,265]

The Denver shooting may have dissuaded people to go and see it in the weekend. If you consider that, then the numbers are very good.

[KK 3,307]

You've certainly been saying many obvious things lately Mr. Cosman...

Its a real shame though. As tragic as the incident is, the media is blowing this way over the top and now they have everyone frightened. Isn't this what killers of this nature want?

[BloodBoal 7,538]

Dark Knight Rises sales fall short of industry forecasts.

And here I was hoping it would beat the pulp out of The Avengers.

Why do you care, anyway? It's not like you're gonna get any of the money the movie makes.

You're worth better than that, KK... Or are you?

[#SnowyVernalSpringsEternal 10,265]

Apparently if you are going to hold a reasonable opinion like that, our beloved Moderator would like you to have it somewhere else then in this thread.

[BloodBoal 7,538]

True. Do you think I'm gonna get a one-month ban?

[#SnowyVernalSpringsEternal 10,265]

I hope so.

[KK 3,307]

Dark Knight Rises sales fall short of industry forecasts.

And here I was hoping it would beat the pulp out of The Avengers.

Why do you care, anyway? It's not like you're gonna get any of the money the movie makes.

You're worth better than that, KK... Or are you?

I'd simply like a movie I hold a reasonable amount of respect for earn greater success than generic fare like The Avengers. Nothing more

True. Do you think I'm gonna get a one-month ban?

I'd say an indefinite one. Goodbye, my friend. It was nice knowing you. And yes, I'd happily take over as The Messenger.

[JoeinAR 1,949]

Dark Knight Rises sales fall short of industry forecasts.

And here I was hoping it would beat the pulp out of The Avengers.

Why do you care, anyway? It's not like you're gonna get any of the money the movie makes.

You're worth better than that, KK... Or are you?

I agree and hold KK's opinion as well.

[BloodBoal 7,538]