Avatar 2, 3 and 4 or how James Cameron stopped worrying and pulled The Hobbit on us

[Stark 312]

It’s hard to believe that people are still betting against James Cameron!

[Romão 2,274]

I don't think anyone here doubts this movie's box office potential.

[Not Mr. Big 4,639]

1 hour ago, Romão said:

I don't think anyone here doubts this movie's box office potential.

Some do.  And they are wrong 

[Romão 2,274]

22 minutes ago, Not Mr. Big said:

Some do.  And they are wrong 

 

 

Like I wrote before, I personally have no interest in watching this, but I have no doubt this will gross billions. James Cameron's name, the memory of the first movie, the presentation gimmicks, the inflated ticket prices, a fairly empty December slate, the promise of visual spectacle will ensure that

[TheUlyssesian 2,478]

This movie might be dumpster fire garbage trash, but it is basically a money printing machine.

 

I say 2 billion minimum. 

[mrbellamy 6,286]

It'll be a hit but of course the question we're all wondering is how big it'll be. If it hits $2 billion, it's an unequivocal smash and still hasn't cracked the all-time top 5. $1.5b and it's outgrossed Top Gun: Maverick but still out of the top 10.

 

I feel like a low bar could put it between Spider Man: No Way Home ($1.91b) and Jurassic World ($1.67b) and look "underwhelming" on its face but still make everyone involved pretty damn happy. Lower side of $1b and he may get to finish his saga but you start questioning if people's interest will sustain. Impossible to consider it making less than $1b but at that point it's a joke even if it's still technically a hit. 

 

If it's a genuine crowdpleaser, it could be #3 between Endgame ($2.79b) and Titanic ($2.2b). $3b and he yet again proves he knows something nobody else does. 

[TheUlyssesian 2,478]

1 hour ago, mrbellamy said:

It'll be a hit but of course the question we're all wondering is how big it'll be. If it hits $2 billion, it's an unequivocal smash and still hasn't cracked the all-time top 5. $1.5b and it's outgrossed Top Gun: Maverick but still out of the top 10.

 

I feel like a low bar could put it between Spider Man: No Way Home ($1.91b) and Jurassic World ($1.67b) and look "underwhelming" on its face but still make everyone involved pretty damn happy. Lower side of $1b and he may get to finish his saga but you start questioning if people's interest will sustain. Impossible to consider it making less than $1b but at that point it's a joke even if it's still technically a hit. 

 

If it's a genuine crowdpleaser, it could be #3 between Endgame ($2.79b) and Titanic ($2.2b). $3b and he yet again proves he knows something nobody else does. 

 

If it makes a billion it cannot possibly be underwhelming. If it beats Black Panther and Top Gun to the biggest film of the year, who in their right mind could call it a box office disappointment?

[mrbellamy 6,286]

I'm just thinking relatively. It's the difference between Aquaman or Skyfall making $1b and Rise of Skywalker or Jurassic World: Dominion making $1b. I'm finding it hard to imagine Avatar 2 ending up at $1b and just getting away with great press about what a smash success it is. I'm sure Cameron would get to make 4 and 5 with $1b but I'm wondering what numbers beneath that he has in mind when he's mulling over the market telling him he's "done or semi-done". Justice League numbers?

 

If it's the highest grossing film of the year or in any case getting anywhere near $2b, it'd be a total financial triumph. I only say "underwhelming" in quotes because it's Cameron and it's Avatar. 

[Thor 7,504]

8 hours ago, Stark said:

It’s hard to believe that people are still betting against James Cameron!

 

Indeed. The mind boggles.

[crumbs 14,315]

Definitely not underestimating the man. Very curious what the actual plot is, because the story revealed so far doesn't seem overly meaty.

 

But I guess if you summarise the plot of most Cameron movies, they all sound a bit thin. Ripley returns to LV426 to confront the aliens. A futiristic robot is sent back in time to kill someone. Two people from opposite worlds fall in love on a doomed voyage. 

 

In a way he's actually brilliant at extrapolating a basic premise into a compelling, feature-length crowdpleaser. 

[GerateWohl 4,366]

I think, for Avatar the theme park ride comparison of Martin Scorsese fits much better than for Marvel. And in that aspect the first movie was really brillant. And under that aspect the movie will be successful and under that aspect I am going to watch it.

[mstrox 6,651]

At least when this one tanks, Cameron can dump the rest of the sequels on Disney+.

[publicist 4,643]

7 hours ago, TheUlyssesian said:

If it makes a billion it cannot possibly be underwhelming. If it beats Black Panther and Top Gun to the biggest film of the year, who in their right mind could call it a box office disappointment?

 

Probably those who invested in it - depending on what they invested and what percentage they get of the gross. The finer points of Hollywood dealmaking makes me suspect that it is impossible to beat TG:M, because it's just a - by today's standards - little action movie that Cruise has set up with his business acumen, which seems to me much more impressive. I mean, who would've bet on that?
 

1 minute ago, mstrox said:

At least when this one tanks, Cameron can dump the rest of the sequels on Disney+.

 

Right between 'Herbie Goes Bananas' and 'The Computer Wore Tennis Shoes'!

[Giftheck 916]

4 minutes ago, mstrox said:

At least when this one tanks, Cameron can dump the rest of the sequels on Disney+.

 

If this one tanks, he'll release Avatar 3, and 4 and 5 will be cancelled.

 

(I don't think it will tank, though. Maybe profit but not meet expectations?)

[GerateWohl 4,366]

I wonder, why so many here are discussing Avatar 2's potential box office success. Are you Fox shareholders or what?

When a movie comes out, I just care for my personal movie experience and maybe the cultural impact of the movie.

But I don't care, how much money the producers and their companies will end up making out of it.

 

[Naïve Old Fart 9,527]

10 minutes ago, GerateWohl said:

I wonder, why so many here are discussing Avatar 2's potential box office success. Are you Fox shareholders or what?

Yes, and

 

10 minutes ago, GerateWohl said:

But I don't care, how much money the producers and their companies will end up making out of it.

I do 

[Disco Stu 15,495]

1 hour ago, GerateWohl said:

I wonder, why so many here are discussing Avatar 2's potential box office success. Are you Fox shareholders or what?

When a movie comes out, I just care for my personal movie experience and maybe the cultural impact of the movie.

But I don't care, how much money the producers and their companies will end up making out of it.

 

 

 

I follow box office and awards news like other people follow sports, just for fun.  It's very much divorced from my taste in films as a viewer, which isn't to say I don't enjoy big blockbusters or a good Oscar bait drama sometimes, just that my enjoyment of following BO/awards has no bearing on what I enjoy as a viewer.

[mstrox 6,651]

I take great pleasure in watching extremely rich people lose money, and I’m always hoping for it!

[mrbellamy 6,286]

Yes it's a love for show biz which is sometimes but often not at all related to what I love about movies.

[GerateWohl 4,366]

23 hours ago, crumbs said:

Very curious what the actual plot is, because the story revealed so far doesn't seem overly meaty.

I am confident, that Avatar 2 provides numerous entertainment values. But a plot or a story will not be one of them. Following the discussions here I would say, even hardcore fans of Avatar agree on that.

[A24 4,333]

It's not about the story. It's about 'the message'.

 

Avatar 1: Save the forests.

Avatar 2. Save the oceans.

[Naïve Old Fart 9,527]

Avatar 4: Save Meta.

Avatar 5: save Facebook.

Avatar 6: save The Mouse.

 

[Edmilson 7,442]

Cue the Obi-Wan jokes:

 

James Cameron Turned His Abandoned ‘Avatar’ Sequel Idea Into a New Graphic Novel

"Avatar: The High Ground" is set to hit bookstore shelves on December 6.

[greenturnedblue 372]

Guess he changed his mind on the sequel being about the skies, to the ocean instead

[mstrox 6,651]

He felt that the sky didn’t truly fit the title “Avatar: The Way of Water,” so he went back to the drawing board.

[Naïve Old Fart 9,527]

Before the drawing board was invented...where did people go back to?

[GerateWohl 4,366]

1 hour ago, Naïve Old Fart said:

Before the drawing board was invented...where did people go back to?

Cave walls.

[Naïve Old Fart 9,527]

Nice, @GerateWohl.

What about the first square?

[Nick1Ø66 4,714]

New trailer, where Pandora looks suspiciously like Typhoon Lagoon at Disney World.

 

 
Cameron apparently has said the film needs to hit 2 billion to break even. That presumably doesn’t include tie-in ticket sales to the water park.

[Chen G. 3,949]

If you watch the trailers and listen very carefully, you can hear the sound of the box office getting smashed.

[Nick1Ø66 4,714]

You just don’t bet against Cameron.

 

Prediction: The biggest ecological aquatic blockbuster since Star Trek IV!

[GerateWohl 4,366]

1 hour ago, Nick1Ø66 said:

New trailer, where Pandora looks suspiciously like Typhoon Lagoon at Disney World.

 

 
Cameron apparently has said the film needs to hit 2 billion to break even. That presumably doesn’t include tie-in ticket sales to the water park.

Visually I felt particularly reminded to Luc Besson's Valerian.

 

At last we get more insights into the story. Jake and his family comes to these water people, probably fleeing from the bad guys from the first movie, who are Avatars as well and spend there some time to learn their habbits, rules, culture and so on like Jake did in the first movie, learning to ride on alien seals instead of flying reptiles. Then the bad guys find them and the water people must decide if they support Jake and his family to fight against the bad guys or just hand them over to the enemies. 

That is actually worse than I thought. But maybe I am comletely wrong and it is much more interesting.

 

Then in the third movie they probably flee into the mountains or the north pole of Pandora and do the whole same story over again.

[Luke Skywalker 1,795]

The problem is see is that is the same plot of the 1st film but in the ocean… probably there will be mor eunobtanium in the water tribes homesite.

 

but if it is entertaining, it does not necessarily be a problem…

[Nick1Ø66 4,714]

It does look derivative of the first film's plot. But then again, the first film's plot was decidedly simple and derivative also (and intentionally so), and that didn't stop it from being incredibly successful...not to mention a pretty entertaining experience in the cinema.

 

If you're going to see Avatar expecting complex plotting or a character driven story, you're probably going to be disappointed. Avatar is about spectacle, which this no doubt will deliver. 

 

[Jay 37,359]

‘Avatar 2’ Is So Expensive It Must Become the ‘Fourth or Fifth Highest-Grossing Film in History’ Just to Break Even

[Edmilson 7,442]

Huh. Good luck trying to get to 2 billion without China and Russia.

[Mr. Who 919]

I’m so exited about this movie, have been waiting since 2009! Hopefully it breaks all the records but with a post pandemic world the landscape has changed but I’m optimistic! The preview in the cinema looked amazing.

[GerateWohl 4,366]

36 minutes ago, Nick1Ø66 said:

It does look derivative of the first film's plot. But then again, the first film's plot was decidedly simple and derivative also (and intentionally so), and that didn't stop it from being incredibly successful...not to mention a pretty entertaining experience in the cinema.

 

If you're going to see Avatar expecting complex plotting or a character driven story, you're probably going to be disappointed. Avatar is about spectacle, which this no doubt will deliver. 

This "Don't let the viewer 's experience get distracted by something like a plot" concept never made sense to me. But it seems to pay off financially. It is a little bit like light romantic Bollywood movies and these are immensly successful, too.

[Nick1Ø66 4,714]

8 minutes ago, GerateWohl said:

This "Don't let the viewer 's experience get distracted by something like a plot" concept never made sense to me. But it seems to pay off financially. It is a little bit like light romantic Bollywood movies and these are immensly successful, too.

 

I think there's room for everything. If I want a film with compelling characters and a smart story, I know where to get that. And if I want pure spectacle, I'll go see Avatar. Sometimes, a film can give us both, but it's not a prerequisite to being entertained, at least for me.

 

It's all about expectations. I had a great time at the cinema seeing Maverick (Cruise, not Smith), but I didn't go in expecting Shakespeare. 

[Romão 2,274]

Spectacle without story is no spectacle at all. I really don't see what we shouldn't expect both at all time with this sort of project. Screenwriters are cheaper that VFX

[Nick1Ø66 4,714]

Where are you getting the idea that Avatar (or its sequel) has no story? Just because the story is simple doesn't mean there's "no story". 

[GerateWohl 4,366]

28 minutes ago, Nick1Ø66 said:

Where are you getting the idea that Avatar (or its sequel) has no story? Just because the story is simple doesn't mean there's "no story". 

Ok. Let me put it this way. Apart from the plot, I expect from a story or a movie that it tells me something. Like in the first movie I could find things like even as a disabled invalid you could find new perspective in another place. Take your chances. Or something like that people get blinded by technology and that there are people putting economical interests over other persons lives. And if we are lucky such little things are shown and transported in an original way. This is an area, where Avatar so far was not really brillant. And for the sequel so far I don't even expect anything like that.

 

[mrbellamy 6,286]

3 hours ago, Jay said:

‘Avatar 2’ Is So Expensive It Must Become the ‘Fourth or Fifth Highest-Grossing Film in History’ Just to Break Even

 

The new GQ article that's from is a goldmine

 

James Cameron:

Quote

I always figured that no negative comment was the equivalent of a compliment. That's not how people are wired at all. You have to actually say it out loud.

 

Also James Cameron: 

Quote

I don't have any friends

 

[publicist 4,643]

5 hours ago, Nick1Ø66 said:

It's all about expectations. I had a great time at the cinema seeing Maverick (Cruise, not Smith), but I didn't go in expecting Shakespeare. 

 

Many people had a great time, but that was because it wasn't painful and slyly acknowledges that aging catches up with dumb jocks, too. 

 

Cameron may use 'plots' and 'stories', but they never seem touched by human hands, they are part of the machinery. The last Cameron movie i really liked was 'True Lies' (and that was probably because of Jamie Lee Curtis and Bill Paxton...and that those rousing effects really meant something back in 1994).

[Jay 37,359]

 

[Nick1Ø66 4,714]

Along with Indy 5, this is one of the two films I'll definitely see in the cinema in the next year. Both may be great, both may s*ck, but both are worthy of being seen on the big screen. Especially Avatar, where seeing it on a ginourmous screen in 3D is the whole point.

 

Not a huge Avatar fan, but seeing it in the cinema is an experience I definitely remember.

[TolkienSS 407]

I can't believe that in this day and age, where cinematic visuals are the snip of a finger away, and there are staggeringly beautiful nature documentaries, a two billion dollar movie's big selling point is "beautiful vistas".

 

There is no revolutionary cinematic visual still to be explored. It's all been there, done that. 

If any other movie tried to sell itself on "lookie how goody we looks" without the name of James Cameron attached, nobody would care.

[Naïve Old Fart 9,527]

"beautiful vistas", my arse!

It's all in a fucking computer. Nothing "beautiful" about that. If I want beautiful vistas, I'll take a look out of my fucking bedroom window, thank you kindly.

I agree with @TolkienSS. For computerised graphics, I'll watch TRON. At least it's putting on screen something completely new. AVATAR is a copy of a copy of a copy.

[Sweeping Strings 2,358]

I was underwhelmed by the first one, and consequently couldn't give a shiny shite about the sequels. 

[TolkienSS 407]

1 hour ago, Naïve Old Fart said:

"beautiful vistas", my arse!

It's all in a fucking computer. Nothing "beautiful" about that. If I want beautiful vistas, I'll take a look out of my fucking bedroom window, thank you kindly.

I agree with @TolkienSS. For computerised graphics, I'll watch TRON. At least it's putting on screen something completely new. AVATAR is a copy of a copy of a copy.

 

There's something inherently touching about a camera capturing a moment of scenic beauty in the real world. It affects the human part in your heart.

I don't care how many millions they throw at it to create something I know is artificial.