Avatar 2, 3 and 4 or how James Cameron stopped worrying and pulled The Hobbit on us

[Sweeping Strings 1,758]

Apparently it needs to hit 2 billion just to break even. Fucking hell. 

 

[Mr. Who 717]

28 minutes ago, Sweeping Strings said:

Apparently it needs to hit 2 billion just to break even. Fucking hell. 

 

This figure isn't correct. This is basically what both movies 2 and 3 need to make. It's rumored that the budget for A2-3 is 1bn in total and the fact that A2 needs to make 2bn to make a profit is incorrect which has been misreported by the media. Avatar 2, like the first movie was, is backloaded which means a longer theatrical run, opposed to the frontloaded Marvel movies which make most of their total money in the opening weekend. Given that there is no other big movie until Ant-Man 3 which is released in the middle of February, Avatar will have a good chance to do good box office during that period and I thinker 1,5bn will definitively happen and 2bn is certainly possible.

 

It's likely that Disney have already green-lit the 4th and 5th movies behind the scenes. They must be very happy that one of their movies is making over 1bn (within the next couple of days) for the first time since 2019 (No Way Home they earned 25% only because of the Sony deal). They are already working on movie 3 and I wouldn't be surprised if Disney announce 4 and 5 officially within the next couple of weeks.

On 25/12/2022 at 7:50 PM, Edmilson said:

Domestic: 279.8m

International: 601.7m (including about 100m in China)

Worldwide: 881.3m

 

It's decent, but so far not exactly the monster Disney and Cameron hoped it would be. Apparently, the weather in the US has been terrible and that worked against the movie there. However, the movie is performing great in other countries in Europe, as well as Korea and Brazil.

The movie has made more money than Avatar 1 had at this point in the release actually if you compare day to day from the day of release. Wether A2 has the same legs as A1 does is yet to be seen (I think it will have good legs but not quite as good as A1 did.

 

The snowstorm has definitively affected it though and the Covid situation in China as well. Under normal circumstances in China, the movie would be doing a lot better.

On 26/12/2022 at 4:43 AM, Fancyarcher said:

 

The other thing hurting is the pandemic effect in China. Probably would be doing a bit better, as it I'd say it's doing pretty well. It was never going to exactly match the first, most sequels to movies that break records like Avatar have, rarely if ever really do. 

I also don't think that A2 can beat A1 but it is possible that one of the upcoming sequels could at least come closer to 2,9bn because of the tighter release schedule and the progression of the story which according to Cameron really takes off in movie 3, now that the main new characters have been introduced in the first 2 movies.

[Naïve Old Fart 7,991]

.

[Mr. Who 717]

The numbers are impressive.

 

[leeallen01 2,036]

It's already showing big word of mouth potential. E.g. i believe it was Italy that had a 250% increase of 1 day compared to the same day last week. 

[Mr. Who 717]

3 hours ago, leeallen01 said:

It's already showing big word of mouth potential. E.g. i believe it was Italy that had a 250% increase of 1 day compared to the same day last week. 

The word of mouth is indeed great! I have so many friends who want to see it but it’s literally sold out, especially the big premium cinemas with IMAX and Dolby.

[Edmilson 4,984]

Quote

I had a bit of a crisis of faith as we were cutting the movie together,” admitted James Cameron of his billion-dollar-grossing Avatar: The Way of Water. “It was too violent. I wanted a balance between the beauty, the epiphany, the kind of spiritual aspect of the film, with the action, and I felt it had gotten a little too grim.

https://deadline.com/2022/12/guns-avatar-the-way-of-water-cut-violence-james-cameron-1235207390/

 

The movie is still very violent. There's scenes of people torturing teenagers, brutalizing the Na'Vi and the Pandora animals, etc. If I had a child younger than 13 I would not let he/she watch alone.

[mstrox 5,889]

Sounds like the PG-13 rating is right on then.  I wouldn’t mind seeing a 90-minute family friendly cut.

[Naïve Old Fart 7,991]

8 hours ago, Mr. Who said:

The word of mouth is indeed great! I have so many friends who want to see it but it’s literally sold out, especially the big premium cinemas with IMAX and Dolby.

Nah! It sounds better, in Dubly 

 

[Chen G. 3,216]

22 hours ago, Mr. Who said:

The numbers are impressive.

 

That's the power of James Cameron, kids.

[leeallen01 2,036]

[Edmilson 4,984]

According to Deadline, ATWOW is the fastest movie since Spiderman No Way Home to earn a billion dollars at the box office, doing so in 14 days.

 

The first Avatar needed 19 days to get there. Infinity War needed 11 days and Endgame, just 5 days.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fastest-grossing_films#Fastest_to_$1_billion

[LSH 837]

 

It's on it's way guys! Is Cameron gonna do it again?

 

[Mr. Who 717]

36 minutes ago, LSH said:

 

It's on it's way guys! Is Cameron gonna do it again?

 

I think it can pass Avengers Infinity War and Force Awakens by making 2.1 billion and become the 4th highest grossing movie. I'm doubtful that it can pass Titanic (which is at number 3) but you never know I guess. If TWOW is still doing good in February then Disney could technically move Ant-Man 3 a few weeks but its probably unlikely that they would do that but as both movies are Disney...

[Thor 5,972]

1 hour ago, LSH said:

It's on it's way guys! Is Cameron gonna do it again?

 

Of course. Need I say "never bet against James Cameron" again? I'm looking forward to laughing in the face of the AVATAR naysayers when it's reached its goal and beyond.

[Jurassic Shark 9,810]

Never say never bet against James Cameron again. 

[crumbs 12,973]

It'll absolutely hit $2b, the only question is how much higher it'll go.

 

I know heaps of people who simply haven't gotten around to seeing this yet because it's such a busy time of year, myself included!

[Jurassic Shark 9,810]

It's a good thing to know yourself!

[JNHFan2000 1,578]

Disney won't delay Ant-Man.

That said, I'm impressed with how fast it got to 1 billion. I think it'll do just below 2 billion. Around 1.8 or 1.9. But we'll see.

[Disco Stu 15,475]

Yeah I'm not betting on it getting to 2 within the next month.  It's clearly under-performing in North America and therefore even more dependent on the international gross than Disney was anticipating.  That said, it's obviously doing very well internationally, so it's certainly within the realm of possibility to get to 2 billion with a gross that's 70+% international.

[Mr. Who 717]

1 hour ago, crumbs said:

It'll absolutely hit $2b, the only question is how much higher it'll go.

 

I know heaps of people who simply haven't gotten around to seeing this yet because it's such a busy time of year, myself included!

Cinemas are pretty booked up as well. I tried to book Avatar tickets the other day and most cinemas were fully booked. I haven't experienced this kind of thing in ages for cinemas.

4 minutes ago, Disco Stu said:

Yeah I'm not betting on it getting to 2.  It's clearly under-performing in the US and therefore even more dependent on the international gross than Disney was anticipating.  That said, it's obviously doing very well internationally, so it's within the realm of possibility to get to 2 billion with a gross that's 70% international.

Yeah I think the gross of the first movie was over 70% international as well.

7 minutes ago, JNHFan2000 said:

Disney won't delay Ant-Man.

That said, I'm impressed with how fast it got to 1 billion. I think it'll do just below 2 billion. Around 1.8 or 1.9. But we'll see.

I think it will probably be at 1,4 within a few days so it should go over 1,8-9 IMO but who knows.

[Disco Stu 15,475]

The lopsided-ness here is pretty funny.  The domestic share for Avatar will drop into the 20s soon enough I'm sure.

 

[Hurmm 90]

I watched this today. It's more or less the same as the first Avatar, which is to say it's not as fresh and does not come across as good. For one thing, I was underwhelmed by the action in the last act. That was one thing that the first movie was bang on. Cameron is usually so good with action. 

 

And yet again, 3D is cool for 5 minutes and then becomes a distraction. I'm convinced the best way to see this is in 2D in the largest screen possible.

 

The transition from 48fps to 24fps is extremely jarring, particularly in the last act when the action and editing is rapid. It is so bad that your eyes are clearly seeing the juddering vividly whenever there is a transition. 

[JoeinAR 1,894]

On 25/12/2022 at 12:50 PM, Edmilson said:

Domestic: 279.8m

International: 601.7m (including about 100m in China)

Worldwide: 881.3m

 

It's decent, but so far not exactly the monster Disney and Cameron hoped it would be. Apparently, the weather in the US has been terrible and that worked against the movie there. However, the movie is performing great in other countries in Europe, as well as Korea and Brazil.

Its made more money than any film in this short time. 

Those who wish to see it do poorly are sad little folks 

[leeallen01 2,036]

It's actually making more money this week than last week in most countries. 

 

Cameron is a magical being.

 

2 billion is now a lock. No chance based on the numbers that it will fall short. 

 

My estimate is 2.3, but I also believe it can get 3 billion, because...James Cameron.

[KK 3,254]

It is certainly not getting 3 billion. Haha.

 

It will definitely beat Top Gun, but I think it's going to be a bit of a slow crawl to $2 billion, though I don't doubt it'll get there.

[crumbs 12,973]

33 minutes ago, KK said:

It is certainly not getting 3 billion. Haha.

 

It will definitely beat Top Gun, but I think it's going to be a bit of a slow crawl to $2 billion, though I don't doubt it'll get there.

 

It just overtook the total international gross of Top Gun in only 15 days and is already the largest international gross of any film in 2022.

 

Never bet against Cameron. 

[leeallen01 2,036]

1 hour ago, KK said:

It is certainly not getting 3 billion. Haha.

 

It will definitely beat Top Gun, but I think it's going to be a bit of a slow crawl to $2 billion, though I don't doubt it'll get there.

 

 

Of course it's not going to be the highest grossing film of all-time. 

 

Oh wait, that was a quote from 2009. 

 

Never bet agaist James Cameron, because James Cameron doesn't do what James Cameron does for James Cameron. James Cameron does what James Cameron does because James Cameron is...James Cameron

[Disco Stu 15,475]

While the movie is obviously a success, IMO it’s clearly not going to be a culture defining phenomenon that Titanic or the first Avatar (or TFA or Endgame) was.  It’s just a regular hit movie.  I wouldn’t bet against James Cameron sure, but geez I’m not gonna beg him to let me kiss his feet.

[Not Mr. Big 4,244]

2 minutes ago, Disco Stu said:

While the movie is obviously a success, IMO it’s clearly not going to be a culture defining phenomenon that Titanic or the first Avatar (or TFA or Endgame) was.  It’s just a regular hit movie.  I wouldn’t bet against James Cameron sure, but geez I’m not gonna beg him to let me kiss his feet.

Yes you will

[Disco Stu 15,475]

The sycophancy is this thread is a little weird

[Edmilson 4,984]

I like to think that one metric to assess if a movie is a hit (particularly with younger generations) is to see if it became a meme. Memorable scenes and moments from movies that hit the chord with people until 35 always became memes on the internet.

 

So far I haven't seen a lot of TWOW memes or quotes or anything, whereas Infinity War and Endgame were meme'd to death. But it still early to see, I bet it is going to be a viral hit on the web.

 

[Mr. Who 717]

9 minutes ago, Edmilson said:

I like to think that one metric to assess if a movie is a hit (particularly with younger generations) is to see if it became a meme. Memorable scenes and moments from movies that hit the chord with people until 35 always became memes on the internet.

 

So far I haven't seen a lot of TWOW memes or quotes or anything, whereas Infinity War and Endgame were meme'd to death. But it still early to see, I bet it is going to be a viral hit on the web.

 

I don't use tik tock myself but I was told that Way of Water videos are all over tik tok with millions of views so the younger generation is definitively enjoying the movie.

[Not Mr. Big 4,244]

16 minutes ago, Edmilson said:

I like to think that one metric to assess if a movie is a hit (particularly with younger generations) is to see if it became a meme. Memorable scenes and moments from movies that hit the chord with people until 35 always became memes on the internet.

 

So far I haven't seen a lot of TWOW memes or quotes or anything, whereas Infinity War and Endgame were meme'd to death. But it still early to see, I bet it is going to be a viral hit on the web.

 

It's usually because people are in Marvel/Star Wars bubbles

[Disco Stu 15,475]

Wednesday is more popular with the youngsters than Avatar

[Bayesian 1,068]

1 hour ago, Disco Stu said:

The sycophancy is this thread is a little weird

If it's anything like mine (and I don't know if I want to call mine sycophancy necessarily), it stems in large part from the fervent hope that there may still exist on this earth some form of reasonably original IP that can make a ton of box office money and has nothing to do with godforsaken superhero shit. I'm so done with the MCU and the ever-imploding DCEU, but they certainly aren't done with us. 

[Not Mr. Big 4,244]

12 minutes ago, Disco Stu said:

Wednesday is more popular with the youngsters than Avatar

Because it's easily shareable.  No one's gonna be popping out their phone to share lines in a packed HFR 3D theater

[Mr. Who 717]

I love the first Avatar movie and I think that Way of Water is even better and I want it to do really well. I'm also enjoying the reception the movie has gotten after the years of a pathetic internet minority loudly stating that nobody cares about Avatar!

 

I go to the cinema quite often and I haven't seen the cinemas this booked since I guess Endgame. I tried to get tickets for next week and the seats that are left are all terrible in the big screens.

[mstrox 5,889]

What I still don’t get is , why were the people blue? 

[Not Mr. Big 4,244]

5 minutes ago, mstrox said:

What I still don’t get is , why were the people blue? 

Cyanin pigment 

[Taikomochi 905]

1 hour ago, Edmilson said:

I like to think that one metric to assess if a movie is a hit (particularly with younger generations) is to see if it became a meme. Memorable scenes and moments from movies that hit the chord with people until 35 always became memes on the internet.

 

So far I haven't seen a lot of TWOW memes or quotes or anything, whereas Infinity War and Endgame were meme'd to death. But it still early to see, I bet it is going to be a viral hit on the web.

 

The average person does not give a shit about memes. For the love of God, let’s stop measuring movies’ success by their memes. “Sure it’s one of the highest grossing films of all time, but no memes?   Failure!” I swear I have seen thousands of takes that TWOW would fail financially because the first film didn’t have memes. All memes measure is was the film successful with people specifically inside your online bubble. The average person is not terminally online like all of us. 

[Jurassic Shark 9,810]

1 hour ago, mstrox said:

What I still don’t get is , why were the people blue? 

 

Outcasts from the Blue Man Group.

[leeallen01 2,036]

The truth is that Avatar and Avatar 2 are much loved films worldwide. And whenever something is loved by the many, it will be hated by the few. It happens with everything popular.

[Mr. Who 717]

17 minutes ago, leeallen01 said:

The truth is that Avatar and Avatar 2 are much loved films worldwide. And whenever something is loved by the many, it will be hated by the few. It happens with everything popular.

And these people happen to be pretty loud but they’ve been pretty quiet in the last week

 

[leeallen01 2,036]

People can dislike what they want, and Avatar of course isn't to everyones taste, but with some actively hoping it will fail and laughing at how much they think no one cares, it sure does feel good as a fan myself, to watch the film become another massive success. 

[Chen G. 3,216]

7 minutes ago, leeallen01 said:

with some actively hoping it will fail and laughing at how much they think no one cares

 

That was the most hillarious thing!

 

People betting against James Cameron. Will they never learn?

[Yavar Moradi 1,822]

Well, it’s also some people have been won over by the sequel, when they didn’t care for the original (I’m in that boat… and my wife even moreso…she absolutely HATED the original*).

 

We both didn’t see the point in any Avatar sequels but now we're both very excited for more!

 

Yavar

 

*For the record, she LOVES Disney's Pocahontas (much more than I do) and also LOVES Dances With Wolves (at least as much as I do).

[mstrox 5,889]

We didn’t care much for the original, but will likely watch the new one whenever it’s on Disney+.

 

I’m absolutely happy for the people here who get something out of these though!

[Tom Guernsey 1,760]

I was rather in the camp of thinking that the original Avatar had a limited long lasting impact and that any momentum it may have had for sequels would have somewhat fizzled out with such a long gap but am happy to have been proved wrong. I really enjoyed the sequel with my main complaint being that I find his bad guys rather tediously evil in a way that just gets annoying; they have zero nuance and seem to be unpleasant just for the sake of it which gets grating by the end. However the overall spectacle and level of immersion is pretty astonishing and the effects are basically flawless. Franglen’s score was terrific, extending the original material very effectively, almost to the extent that he may have written more new material than Horner might have done. I mean I’d love to have heard a new Horner score and wish he were still with us but it certainly doesn’t feel like a pale imitation.  

[Edmilson 4,984]

1 hour ago, Taikomochi said:

The average person does not give a shit about memes. For the love of God, let’s stop measuring movies’ success by their memes. “Sure it’s one of the highest grossing films of all time, but no memes?   Failure!” I swear I have seen thousands of takes that TWOW would fail financially because the first film didn’t have memes. All memes measure is was the film successful with people specifically inside your online bubble. The average person is not terminally online like all of us. 

Oh yeah, you're right, is just a tiny minority of people in the world that use social media to comment about movies. The rest of the world probably just like to read reviews on printed newspapers, magazines or watching regular TV.

 

Let me explain my oh so controversial stance that draw the ire of the Cameron sycophants (despite me liking Avatar 2 more than any MCU movie of these past two years): I think (let me say again: THINK) that a nice way to measure the popularity of a movie is seeing how it connects to the youngster, who USUALLY use social media. That's just it. If a movie is well liked, people will comment about it on the internet. 

 

Sure, it's not always a perfect metric. Morbius generated countless memes on social media, but barely anyone saw that film. In Avatar's case, the supposed* lack of memes or other comments on social media may indicate that the people that is watching the movie simply is not engaging with it on the internet. They go to the theater, sit there for over 3 hours, like what they see ( or don't) and then refrain from commenting it on the internet, unlike the MCU's biggest movies or Star Wars sequels.

 

And believe me, I find this whole lack of talking on the internet actually a good thing. God knows how insufferable the internet became when The Last Jedi came out.

 

*I said supposed because I don't have access to any social media big data. There may be lots of Way of Water memes that I don't know about. But since you're so passionated in defending the movie, why don't you write an email for Disney asking them about their data regarding social activity about Avatar?