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2020 Oscars - Best Original Score predictions

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A very well contructed, interesting, and information post there, Maurizio!

 

I am realizing now that I've only listened to 3 out of all 14 scores you mentioned; I should spent some time to check out others!

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You're welcome, Jay!

 

So far, my own personal favourite scores of the year are Randy Newman's Marriage Story and Powell's HTTYD 3. They're both truly excellent scores that illustrate in the best way possible why I love film music. But I get the feeling that Williams' The Rise of Skywalker might join the podium :)

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I'm fairly certain that TROS will be the 2019 score I enjoy the most, but I don't think it has any shot of winning the best score Oscar

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Have you seen The Irishman, Maurizio?  I don't think Robertson has any shot at all, even as a threat.  The vast, vast majority of the film is needle drops.  Very little original music to speak of, certainly not much noticeable.

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3 minutes ago, Disco Stu said:

Have you seen The Irishman, Maurizio?  I don't think Robertson has any shot at all, even as a threat.  The vast, vast majority of the film is needle drops.  Very little original music to speak of, certainly not much noticeable.

 

Yes, I've seen it (and I loved it). There is minimal score, yes, and it's gobbled within period songs, but we have seen strange things happening in this Oscar category, so who knows :) (plus, the score just got a nomination from the Society of Composers and Lyricists).

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I don't like to speculate, but I'm fairly certain it will differ radically from my own top list of the year. It usually does. But so far, JNH's A HIDDEN LIFE might be my winner of the year, in which case I would be delighted if it got nominated.

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Just now, TownerFan said:

 

but we have seen strange things happening in this Oscar category

 

True enough!  I haven't heard 1917 yet, but I like to imagine this could finally be T. Newman's year.  Regardless of the score itself, if the winner isn't Williams, it'd be nice to see Thomas finally get that award he's richly deserved in the past.

 

Just now, TownerFan said:

I loved it

 

Me too!

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I too sincerely hope Tom Newman will finally get his own statuette. I fear JW might be out of the games, unless the film proves to be truly outstanding and get sweeps in other categories too. If I were a betting man, all my chips would be on Joker. It has written Best Score winner all over the place.

 

Glad you loved The Irishman too, Disco Stu!

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I, too, would like Thomas Newman to win, but not just for anything. It would need to be something on the same quality level of his previous, landmark scores that DIDN'T win, like SHAWSHANK or whatever. I'm hoping that will be 1917, but I'm not making any judgements or "wishes" untill I've seen the film and heard the score.

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I estimated the maximum accuracy of the Best Score / Best Dramatic Score Oscars so far.

Maximum, because there might exist some better yet not awarded scores also in the years where nothing came to my mind / I didn't know of any.

 

Can't bother with more accurate maths or more detailed presentation:

 

3:3 (1933-1939) =< 50%
5:5 (1940-1949) =< 50%
3:7 (1950-1959) =< 30%
3:7 (1960-1969) =< 30%
3:7 (1970-1979) =< 30%
1:9 (1980-1989) =< 10%
3:7 (1990-1999) =< 30%
3:7 (2000-2009) =< 30%
2:6 (2010-2018) =< 25%

 

26/84 ~ 31 [%]

 

To quote Toscanini: "You have no ears, and no eyes. Nothing at all".

 

If this decade were to uphold the typical standards of 30%, TROS would have to win. The last time Williams was so dominating as this decade, however, the accuracy was at an all-time low.

 

So anything goes!

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2 hours ago, Thor said:

I, too, would like Thomas Newman to win, but not just for anything. It would need to be something on the same quality level of his previous, landmark scores that DIDN'T win, like SHAWSHANK or whatever. I'm hoping that will be 1917, but I'm not making any judgements or "wishes" untill I've seen the film and heard the score.


I don’t mind “legacy wins” personally.  Like Morricone winning for Hateful Eight.  This is all just for fun anyway.

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3 hours ago, Jay said:

I'm fairly certain that TROS will be the 2019 score I enjoy the most, but I don't think it has any shot of winning the best score Oscar

The last Star Wars score by John Williams has at least some chance to win the Academy Award.

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4 hours ago, Thor said:

I don't like to speculate, but I'm fairly certain it will differ radically from my own top list of the year. It usually does. But so far, JNH's A HIDDEN LIFE might be my winner of the year, in which case I would be delighted if it got nominated.

It's his best in years. :)

 

Karol

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1 hour ago, Brundlefly said:

The last Star Wars score by John Williams has at least some chance to win the Academy Award.

 

It has ZERO chance. The award is awarded to a movie. In the past 19 years, only twice has it been won by a non best picture nominee. 

 

1 was Morricone's stunt score and win for Hateful when only 2nd tier BP nominees competed against it.

 

2nd was Frida which competed against a minimalistic score from a BP nominee.

 

These days the award is hopelessly tied to BP. So forget about Star Wars 9 winning best score unless you also think it will be nominated for BP.

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I guess Joker, Thomas Newman's 1917 and Williams' TROS are pretty much guaranteed. Desplat's Little Women will probably be on the race as well.

 

The others, I'm not so sure. As much as I would love to see JNH receiving his first nomination since Defiance, I read that the movie also uses extensively pre existing source music (as usual on Malick movies), so it has a chance of the Academy disqualifying it. 

 

Shore also has a great chance for Song of Names, but if the movie doesn't get too much attention from the critics and the guilds, then it can be entirely forgotten by the Academy (similar to last year's First Man).

 

If neither Shore or JNH make it, then I would bet on Randy Newman or Terrence Blanchard.

 

Now, to actually win the award, I guess it'll be a battle between Thomas Newman (a beloved composer who was nominated several times but never won) and Hildur. Maybe Joker will get nominated to tons of awards, but because the Academy doesn't want to give the biggest prize to a controversial (and not really that acclaimed, it has just 69% on Rotten Tomatoes) movie, so a Best Original Score would be the consolation prize. On many years one of the runner ups for the Best Movie Award got the prize for Original Score, but not for movie, like Life of Pi, Gravity, La La Land and Black Panther.

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Serious question: do you guys actually think Silvestri's Avengers Endgame has a shot at being nominated?

 

I mean, the score got nominated to the Grammys (which I think they evaluate the album, not as piece of music meant to accompany a movie) and the SCL (Society of Composers and Lyricists) Awards. Film Music Reporter also chose the score as a frontrunner for next Oscar season:

 

http://filmmusicreporter.com/2019/12/02/2020-best-original-score-oscar-predictions/

 

As much as I like the movie and the score, I'm not sure if it has as big of a chance as people have been saying. But what do you guys think?

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6 minutes ago, First TROS March Accolyte said:

I think that it doesn't seem prestigous to Williams at all at this point; they are the honoured that He cares to come. I can imagine that even in the sense of receiving a gift of recognition from entertainment professionals half or third his age, it is largely irrelevant to him, as he well knows his worldwide fandom, and is much more classically oriented now anyway.


You are projecting emotions and extreme egotism on to Williams that are simply untrue I think.  He regularly attends film score focused events like the BMI awards as well as the Oscars.  He’s obviously very invested in the industry that he has been a part of since 1955 at least.  He has been known to send congratulatory notes to winners of the Best Original Score Oscar.  I know Giacchino received one in 2010.

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Best Score Oscar remains the biggest prize that a film composer can win. Multiple composers have said so. Sure Williams transcends film music. But that does not change the fact that in the field he primarily works, this is the biggest prize there is. So of course he would be happy to win it.

 

But I should also admit that at this point, he would care less. I mean for someone like Gia, it can be huge validation but Williams is truly beyond validation. So it won't be life changing for him like it might be for another composer. 

 

So its nuanced. He doesn't need it or it won't change his life, but he would still be happy to get it.

 

3 hours ago, Edmilson said:

Shore also has a great chance for Song of Names, but if the movie doesn't get too much attention from the critics and the guilds, then it can be entirely forgotten by the Academy (similar to last year's First Man).

 

First Man wasn't forgotten by the academy. It got 4 Oscar nominations and even won 1 Oscar.

 

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3 hours ago, Disco Stu said:

He definitely has his best shot in 15 years.  I will bet you $20 right now that Silvestri will receive an honorary Oscar at some point in the 2020s (he turns 70 next year).

 

Seems inevitable that at some point, he'll be hailed as the greatest living American film composer.

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11 hours ago, First TROS March Accolyte said:

I estimated the maximum accuracy of the Best Score / Best Dramatic Score Oscars so far.

Maximum, because there might exist some better yet not awarded scores also in the years where nothing came to my mind / I didn't know of any.

 

Can't bother with more accurate maths or more detailed presentation:

 

3:3 (1933-1939) =< 50%
5:5 (1940-1949) =< 50%
3:7 (1950-1959) =< 30%
3:7 (1960-1969) =< 30%
3:7 (1970-1979) =< 30%
1:9 (1980-1989) =< 10%
3:7 (1990-1999) =< 30%
3:7 (2000-2009) =< 30%
2:6 (2010-2018) =< 25%

 

26/84 ~ 31 [%]

 

To quote Toscanini: "You have no ears, and no eyes. Nothing at all".

 

If this decade were to uphold the typical standards of 30%, TROS would have to win. The last time Williams was so dominating as this decade, however, the accuracy was at an all-time low.

 

So anything goes!

I haven't agreed with a Best Original Score pick since Return of the King.

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5 hours ago, publicist said:

You don't get finished with 50 scores a year by watching movies!

 

I only found out about 1971 and 72 yesterday and this is still blowing my mind? How many were quality, can anyone give me a quick rundown?

 

 

 

To go back to the original post, I’d immediately rule out The Irishman and Jojo Rabbit (extremely low-key). 

 

It’s hard to say without hearing 1917, but these five seem pretty likely: 

 

- SW

- Marriage Story

- Joker

- 1917

- Avengers 

 

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3 hours ago, Jules said:

 

I only found out about 1971 and 72 yesterday and this is still blowing my mind? How many were quality, can anyone give me a quick rundown?

 

The bold ones are those i own two or more cues from and all of them - including period, thriller, muzak, pop, experimental, westerns, tragic dramas and cavemen slapstick (!) - are great.

 

1970
Città violenta (Sergio Sollima)
Giochi particolari (Franco Indovina)
Hornet’s Nest (Phil Karlson)
La califfa (Alberto Bevilacqua)
La moglie più bella (Damiano Damiani)
Le foto proibite di una signora perbene (Luciano Ercoli)
Quando le donne avevano la coda (Pasquale Festa Campanile)
The Men from Shiloh – tv – (Burt Kennedy)
Two mules from sister Sara (Don Siegel)
Vamos a matar, companeros (Sergio Corbucci)

 

1971
Addio fratello crudele (Giuseppe Patroni Griffi)
Correva l’anno di grazia 1870 (film) / Tre donne – tv version – (Alfredo
Giannetti)
Forza G (Duccio Tessari)
Giornata nera per l’ariete (Luigi Bazzoni)
Giù la Testa / A fistful of dynamite (Sergio Leone)
Gli occhi freddi della paura (Enzo G. Castellani)
Il gatto a nove code (Dario Argento)
L’incontro (Piero Schivazappa)
L’istruttoria è chiusa: dimentichi (Damiano Damiani)
La classe operaia va in Paradiso (Elio Petri)
La corta notte delle bambole di vetro (Aldo Lado)
La tarantola dal ventre nero (Paolo Cavara)
Le casse (Henri Verneuil)
Lui per lei (Claudio Rispoli)
Maddalena (Jerzy Kawalerowicz)
Mio caro assassino (Tonino Valeri)
Oceano (Folco Quilici)
Quattro mosche di velluto grigio (Dario Argento)
Sacco e Vanzetti (Giuliano Montaldo)
Sans mobile apparant (Philippe Labro)
Tre nel mille (film) / Storie dell’anno 1000 (tv) (Franco Indovina)
Una lucertola con la pelle di donna (Lucio Fulci)
Veruschka (Franco Rubartelli)
Viva la muerte…tua! (Duccio Tessari)

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I'll never stop being fascinated by Morricone's yearly output during the 60s, in particular. Just insane. Only surpassed by some Bollywood composers. I don't understand how it's possible to make so much music in one year, let alone synch it to a film.

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If he composed for 25 films in 1971, 60 minutes on average for each of them (am I being generous?), the result would be 1500 minutes of music over 365 days---which is just about 4 minutes a day.

 

I wouldn't say it's that much different from the speed of composition of the top TV composers back in the 1950s-1970s.

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Tbh, I'm not sure most of these movies had exactly over an hour of music. Many of them Morricone could still have written 25 - 30 minutes.

 

So, maybe he could finish writing and recording 30 minutes of music in just a week. 

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Many Morricone scores only consists of two or three themes that get repeated and varied a little over a score runtime of 30 minutes, let alone the plain instrumentation - I'm not criticizing this approach of scoring a film, I just want to say that the work is sooner done than a sumptuous two hour space opera.

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Yes. Even some of his famous scores for Italian films - like his famous (adapted) theme for Salo. I think it is just 1 or tow tracks played in the film at various times.

 

So for many of these films, it might just be a suite and that's it. No actually scoring.

 

That is pretty much what he did for Hateful Eight as well. It is basically a suit of themes and that's it.

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That's just plain untrue, many of the CAM etc. releases reveal substantially more recorded music, and there's more than enough 'underscore' that's fitted to a particular scene (most of his giallos had specific synch points). Often over 70 minutes, of course the approach is different to what americans did in the same timespan but if you listen to the wildly experimental 9-minute cues in i. e. 'Maddalena', stuff like this doesn't get recorded by accident. Even some of the muzak - pretty catchy in itself - is orchestrated rather inventively. Morricone just works a lot and i suppose they just let him his thing back then.

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Here's why JOKER will win

 

Academy viewers will remember that the music made them emotional, but it was really the unrelated  song Bring on the Clowns or whatever sung by Fran Sinatra  in the End credits.  But no matter, that song will "project" an impression that the rest of the score was good too and they'll vote for that

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Here are the nominees for Best Original Score on the Golden Globes:

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
“Motherless Brooklyn”
“Little Women”
“Joker”
“1917”
“Marriage Story”

 

Obviously SW wasn't nominated (the other two of the sequel trilogy weren't either), and the Globes' nominations usually differ from those of the Oscars, sometimes for the good, sometimes not. But there you go.

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