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Þekþiþm

Coronavirus

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54 minutes ago, Quintus said:

Has the fatalities figure matched anywhere near that of common flu yet? 


Fuck off with this bullshit comparison to the flu. The common flu is common and we understand how it works and we know how to deal with it. It’s deadly as hell but it is stable. 
 

The coronavirus is new. We don’t fully understand it, we don’t know how it’s going to evolve, we don’t know if we can treat it, we don’t know how accurate Chinese numbers are and we don’t have any infrastructure for vaccination. 
 

So seriously, bury the naive “scientific” optimism you’re getting from some idiot “science” journalists. Or take a trip to China and let us know how it goes. The real scientists get this: https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3048860/coronavirus-top-hong-kong-medical-school-chief

 

It is better to overreact in the face of a new threat than to underreact. 

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5 minutes ago, Blumenkohl said:


Fuck off with this bullshit comparison to the flu. The common flu is common and we understand how it works and we know how to deal with it. It’s deadly as hell but it is stable. 
 

The coronavirus is new. We don’t fully understand it, we don’t know how it’s going to evolve, we don’t know if we can treat it, we don’t know how accurate Chinese numbers are and we don’t have any infrastructure for vaccination. 
 

So seriously, bury the naive “scientific” optimism you’re getting from some idiot “science” journalists. Or take a trip to China and let us know how it goes. The real scientists get this: https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3048860/coronavirus-top-hong-kong-medical-school-chief

 

It is better to overreact in the face of a new threat than to underreact. 

 

So you're part of this conspiracy by governments and Big Pharma?

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Blumenkohl said:


Fuck off with this bullshit comparison to the flu. The common flu is common and we understand how it works and we know how to deal with it. It’s deadly as hell but it is stable. 
 

The coronavirus is new. We don’t fully understand it, we don’t know how it’s going to evolve, we don’t know if we can treat it, we don’t know how accurate Chinese numbers are and we don’t have any infrastructure for vaccination. 

 

These paragraphs were a sort of cross between stereotypical frightened American from behind their fortress, and Hollywood trailer voiceover for a movie based on a pandemic outbreak. 

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Just now, Quintus said:

 

This was a sort of cross between stereotypical frightened American from behind their fortress and Hollywood trailer voiceover for a movie based on a pandemic outbreak. 

 

Shoulda stuck to my gut instinct and kept you blocked. 

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Why did Blume get so angry?  Can nobody on JWFan have polite back and forths with each other any more?

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6 minutes ago, Jay said:

Why did Blume get so angry?  Can nobody on JWFan have polite back and forths with each other any more?

 

Angry Blume is the best Blume!

 

7 minutes ago, Stefancos said:

Ocean Liner turned plague ship!

 

3500 people possible infected! Sink it! Sink it!

 

Is that what you want, Blume? We need to be careful, right?

 

No. You can keep the ship quarantined. 

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Blume will never be able to block me, not for long anyhow, because to him I'm one of a tiny handful of posters still here whom he still finds vaguely interesting, as much as it bugs him. But he just needs to be honest to himself about these things. 

 

Anyway, he should know by now that practically any view I express on here amounts to me stirring the pot. Baiting. I'm just by order of magnitude far more subtle in the way I go these things than say, someone like Drax is. 

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19 minutes ago, Blumenkohl said:

we don’t have any infrastructure for vaccination. 

 

Really? I thought you live in Europe.

 

8 minutes ago, Jay said:

Why did Blume get so angry?  Can nobody on JWFan have polite back and forths with each other any more?

 

It's the virus' fault!

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Only anecdotally of course, but I have a younger cousin (who was always more like a nephew to me) whom has been living in China for a few years now with his Chinese girlfriend (they're both teachers), he's constantly on Facebook and they visit us at Christmas time etc. We were wondering if he was going to escape the country ASAP (like Blume would), but he doesn't seem arsed about it all really, happy where he already is and fairly hopeful that he won't cark it. 

 

bEr16pZ.jpg

 

yTYEbQV.jpg

 

lWXfboo.jpg

 

You can just sense the fear dripping out of his updates.

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Severity in China aside, you don't think the mass hysteria in the West is a little unwarranted Blume? Yes, we are still in the midst of understanding a new kind of influenza we know little about. But public health is also much more prepared to counter this than it was in the days of SARS, or even the more deadly MERS. It won't be long before the virus peaks and a vaccine is produced.

 

 

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42 minutes ago, Jay said:

Why did Blume get so angry?  Can nobody on JWFan have polite back and forths with each other any more?

 

The more prudent question would be when did Blume just become a bit of a dick? 

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1 hour ago, Blumenkohl said:


Fuck off with this bullshit comparison to the flu. The common flu is common and we understand how it works and we know how to deal with it. It’s deadly as hell but it is stable. 
 

The coronavirus is new. We don’t fully understand it, we don’t know how it’s going to evolve, we don’t know if we can treat it, we don’t know how accurate Chinese numbers are and we don’t have any infrastructure for vaccination. 
 

So seriously, bury the naive “scientific” optimism you’re getting from some idiot “science” journalists. Or take a trip to China and let us know how it goes. The real scientists get this: https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3048860/coronavirus-top-hong-kong-medical-school-chief

 

It is better to overreact in the face of a new threat than to underreact. 

 

Exactly. I don't understand this 'no worries' or 'it's means nothing' attitude either.

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32 minutes ago, KK said:

Severity in China aside, you don't think the mass hysteria in the West is a little unwarranted Blume? Yes, we are still in the midst of understanding a new kind of influenza we know little about. But public health is also much more prepared to counter this than it was in the days of SARS, or even the more deadly MERS. It won't be long before the virus peaks and a vaccine is produced.

 

 

 

Your confidence is founded on several nested assumptions. Maybe tackling them one by one will change your mind: 

 

Assumption #1: Public Health is Much More Prepared to Counter This than SARS/MERS. 

 

Sub-assumption: We did not overreact to SARS and MERS and things turned out fine. 

There was a pretty intense response to SARS and MERS which were pretty slow to spread. The current Wuhan virus has dwarfed the case count of SARS and MERS combined, and is still growing exponentially. Second, we don’t know that if we had not reacted to SARS and MERS less intensely if things would have turned out fine. 

 

Sub-assumption: Countering SARS/MERS means you can counter the Wuhan Virus.

This virus has different characteristics, it’s already spread to more people, and it’s spreading at a different scale. We don’t know how much our modern public health infrastructure scales, because it has not been tested to this degree yet. Remember, the common flu and colds are stable. This is growing exponentially. 

 

Sub-assumption: Public health is prepared to counter this.

We don’t know. Past performance does not predict future results. Again public health has not been tested at this scale in real world conditions. Part of why public health is so geared at preventing panic, for example, is that we have some idea of what it takes for our public health infrastructure to implode. If we are concerned over a minor panic/hysteria under rosy conditions, imagine the stress the public health infrastructure would be under if the total case count exceeds a million...or five million. 

 

 

Assumption #2: It won’t be long before the virus peaks. 

First: We have no idea when that will be and we have no way to predict it. As of today the virus is still growing exponentially. If you do have a source for this “peak soon” theory, I’d love to look at the data, because I think it would be fairly easy to poke holes in it. 

 

Second: If this behaves like what we have seen in the past, we might get a slow down in the summer months, let our guard down and then get a second wave that’s even deadlier, as has happened with other pandemics. But again, we don’t know if this particular strain is susceptible to the warm-climate effects seen in other strains. 

 

Assumption #3: It won’t be long before a vaccine is produced. 

I have confidence in our medical apparatus to get a vaccine put together. I don’t know when. We can’t assume that it will be soon. But even if it is, consider that our global vaccine infrastructure is limited, and depending on the vaccine production methods, time-constrained as well. Under normal conditions in first-world nations, a standard seasonal flu-vaccine (that everyone should get, every year!) can run in short supply and takes months of lead time. And we’ve got that worked into a production-line. 

 

Secondly, this virus is hitting China hard. We rely on china for a great deal of medical supplies. If factories in China aren’t producing syringes and needles, how do you give the vaccine? 

 

 

Let me know if I can clarify anything. 

 

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11 minutes ago, Jurassic Shark said:

Doesn't blume have a job or something to keep him from writing such long posts?

 

No. He’s enjoying retirement and needs an hour or two every week to give crap to clowns online. For entertainment. 

 

It’s either this or golf. And he hates golf. 

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4 minutes ago, Þekþiþm said:

 

I have chickens in my backyard. They eat the weeds in my garden.

 

I’m almost done building the coop. Should be another day. 

 

3 minutes ago, Stefancos said:

 

It's the Trump-era, mate! Better get with the times.

 

I’ve always admired your willingness to modernize and adapt Stefan. 

 

I like how Jay is worried about this. This is the hottest thread in the otherwise dead Other Topics right now! 

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16 minutes ago, Blumenkohl said:

I like how Jay is worried about this. This is the hottest thread in the otherwise dead Other Topics right now! 

 

The JWfan bosses are scared of looking bad in front of their industry mates in Hollywood.

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2 hours ago, Quintus said:

Only anecdotally of course, but I have a younger cousin (who was always more like a nephew to me) whom has been living in China for a few years now with his Chinese girlfriend (they're both teachers), he's constantly on Facebook and they visit us at Christmas time etc. We were wondering if he was going to escape the country ASAP (like Blume would), but he doesn't seem arsed about it all really, happy where he already is and fairly hopeful that he won't cark it. 

 

bEr16pZ.jpg

 

yTYEbQV.jpg

 

lWXfboo.jpg

 

You can just sense the fear dripping out of his updates.

 

@Quintus, while I admire your willingness to drag your family into the mix to win an argument with me, I have no desire to win an internet argument. I am just telling you this is what it is and that the media that is trying to paint people as hysteric is doing something dangerous. 

 

While you’re trying to propagandize some photos of adorable pets, I have several former colleagues who are in China at this moment, a couple of provinces over from Wuhan, and even there things are incredibly glum and tense. People are told to stay inside until this blows over and everyone is stressed. 

 

Whether your cousin is aware of it or not, here’s his option space on the ground: 

 

  1. I bet you he missed his chance to leave China, and that’s probably why he hasn’t gotten out of Dodge. So he’s got to put on a brave face. BA and Virgin, the only two UK operators to and from China stopped flights January 29th. At this point, he has ZERO options in terms of leaving China unless the UK puts together more evacuation flights to his local area.  
  2. If the Chinese efforts are effective, your cousin will have no worries and can breathe a sigh of relief and continue having fun. 
  3. If the Chinese efforts are not effective, whatever province he is in will eventually go under quarantine under martial law, just like Wuhan. It’s not going to be fun and he will be at much greater risk for getting ill. 

I sincerely hope for your cousin and the world that Option 2 is the scenario going forward. Please wish him the best from the Angry Cauliflower on the internet, and that the angry cauliflower suggests if the UK does provide an evacuation flight, he should take the flight, get out and deal with quarantine in the UK rather than in China. 

 

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Where I live, it's the media that are hysteric regarding the virus, not the people.

 

11 hours ago, Alexcremers said:

China deaths passes 490 ...

 

china-murka-gambar-bintang-di-benderanya

 

When it comes to official Chinese numbers, you always have to multiply by at least a thousand.

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