Disco Stu 15,495 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 In its initial release https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Top-Gun-Maverick-(2020) https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Avatar-The-Way-of-Water-(2022) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edmilson 7,435 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Well, if it performs like the first Avatar from this point forward, Avatar 2 will end up with $813m. If it performs like No Way Home, it'll finish with $668m. I'm guessing it will actually end up between these two extremes, with legs closer to those of Avatar than No Way Home's. So yeah: in short, I think it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco Stu 15,495 Posted January 22, 2023 Author Share Posted January 22, 2023 I think it’s gonna be close! Will be very interesting to see when Disney decides to put it on D+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mstrox 6,651 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Haven’t seen either movie and don’t know or care about either of their box office grosses, but voted no. Just feels right to me. bruce marshall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edmilson 7,435 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Both are good movies, and deserving of their success. I think it's really interesting for the movie industry that the three highest-grossing movies of the year were from people or franchises (Jurassic, Tom Cruise/Top Gun and James Cameron) who were synonymous with 80s/90s cinema. It really shows how Hollywood became so obsessed with superheroes that they weren't able to create "the next Tom Cruise" or "the next James Cameron", and now that the MCU is maybe past its prime, they need "the heroes of an earlier age" to rescue them. Bayesian 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor 7,494 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 7 hours ago, mstrox said: Haven’t seen either movie and don’t know or care about either of their box office grosses, but voted no. Just feels right to me. Same here. Never really understood the box office gross obsession, as if movies were a sporting event. But I'm glad it's doing well and that it secures more sequels. AVATAR 2 was the second best film of last year. bruce marshall and Jurassic Shark 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leeallen01 2,136 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 It's going to be very close. But I'll say it just falls short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naïve Old Fart 9,515 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 I can say, with absolute confidence, that AVATAR either will, or will not, outgross TOP GUN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Disco Stu 15,495 Posted January 23, 2023 Author Popular Post Share Posted January 23, 2023 I can’t decide quite what I think will happen. Just as an interesting narrative I prefer the improbability of Tom Cruise having the biggest hit of his career at 60 to “sequel to most successful film ever is very successful.” But I want to approach the question somewhat empirically or whatever. I feel no shame in my enjoyment of following Hollywood the business like its sports. It’s art and commerce in both concert and conflict, and I think it’s fun and fascinating. Bayesian, mrbellamy, Smeltington and 1 other 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco Stu 15,495 Posted January 23, 2023 Author Share Posted January 23, 2023 Ultimately I voted yes because right now I think Avatar 2 will end around 740ish, but it would only require a fairly small shift in Avatar 2's weekend percentage drops for Top Gun to win out. It comes down to how much more can it rack up in the next 4 weeks before Ant-Man 3 comes out? I set the poll to close on Feb. 1, so I may sneaky change my answer depending on what this coming weekend's numbers look like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blondheim 1,157 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 I do think Top Gun will stay on top of the US domestic but who knows with Cameron’s box office staying power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jay 37,351 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 5 hours ago, Thor said: Never really understood the box office gross obsession, as if movies were a sporting event. So then why open and participate in this thread? Edmilson and Jurassic Shark 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bayesian 1,363 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Oscar noms are being announced tomorrow, I believe, and Avatar 2 is likely to score at least a couple, including best picture. That’s probably going to boost its box office performance for a few weeks. It’ll be close but I think Avatar 2 will squeak past TGM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Who 919 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 I hope Franglen gets a nomination, he really deserves it. Not Mr. Big 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1977 1,743 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 55 minutes ago, Jay said: So then why open and participate in this thread? Boredom? Morbid fascination? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Thor 7,494 Posted January 23, 2023 Popular Post Share Posted January 23, 2023 2 hours ago, Jay said: So then why open and participate in this thread? Because it's an observation to make. Naïve Old Fart, Sweeping Strings and Jurassic Shark 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurassic Shark 12,065 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Interesting observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco Stu 15,495 Posted January 30, 2023 Author Share Posted January 30, 2023 After this past weekend's box office results, I'm feeling much more confident in my Yes vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco Stu 15,495 Posted February 3, 2023 Author Share Posted February 3, 2023 Avatar 2 came very close yesterday to its first single day gross in North America of less than $1 million (it made $1,005,502), which tells me that that particular milestone will come next week probably. If it does then its first sub million day will be between the 53rd and 56th day of release. For reference, Top Gun Maverick didn't have a sub million day until its 76th day of release (on August 10th). So Top Gun isn't bowed out of this contest yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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