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The 2009 Box Office Thread


John Crichton

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For a spinoff with a $135M production budget, a $30M marketing budget, and a backing movie studio that hasn't seen a true success in four years, it leaves much to be desired.

Well that's what they get for overspending.

Seriously $87 million is pretty damn good for a spinoff, yeah I'm sure they were hoping for $100+, but the real key is staying power, which I think might be a problem.

That used to define true blockbusters, staying power.

Yeah, it's all about the opening weekend now.

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Seriously $87 million is pretty damn good for a spinoff, yeah I'm sure they were hoping for $100+, but the real key is staying power, which I think might be a problem.

I agree...plus I think what will also hurt the sales is those who saw the workprint and decide it's not worth going to see again in theaters with finished effects. No I didn't download it, it's a movie I want to see as a finish product.

Are there really so many people with a superfast connection speed who decided to download this? I bet not many people even bothered.

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Seriously $87 million is pretty damn good for a spinoff, yeah I'm sure they were hoping for $100+, but the real key is staying power, which I think might be a problem.

I agree...plus I think what will also hurt the sales is those who saw the workprint and decide it's not worth going to see again in theaters with finished effects. No I didn't download it, it's a movie I want to see as a finish product.

Are there really so many people with a superfast connection speed who decided to download this? I bet not many people even bothered.

As an American now living in New Zealand

Yes

Yes there are

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I found the whole X-Men series to be a massive bore.

But what do you expect when Brian Singer is in charge of a superhero film and you have Brett Ratner for a third film?

It's a shame because I thought they were all well cast and had so much promise.

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I think the first one was promising and worked character-wise, the second is one of the best superhero movies I've seen and got the balance just right, and the third is an absolute pile of shit.

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That used to define true blockbusters, staying power.

Yeah, it's all about the opening weekend now.

Which makes a lot of sense from a marketing point of view. Staying power depends on the film's quality, which advertising people don't have any control on. Since you don't want to risk audiences not liking your film, you focus all your advertising might in the first weekend, no matter what the movie. If word-of-mouth makes the audiences buy tickets even on the second weekend, that's a welcome extra. But when you're going to spend millions on dollars on a promotion, you go for the safest bet.

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But what do you expect when Brian Singer is in charge of a superhero film

I don't know what do you expect?

I was watching the first X-Men yesterday and it still holds up for the most part. "Toad struck by lightning" line aside, the script is especially good considering it was one of the first superhero films back then.

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$7 million for Thursday-night shows is actually quite good. My guess for the weekend is $65-70 million.

This movie is going to make its real money in repeat and word-of-mouth business ... if it can stay in theatres long enough, that is. So many big movies are coming out in the next few weeks, it's going to start getting shoved off of theatres' big screens very quickly to make room for Terminator and Night at the Museum and Up and Land of the Lost and so forth. Still, I'm betting it ends up making about $200-225 million overall.

The sequel will be the real Star Trek blockbuster.

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Like Dark Knight was to Begins.

That's a very good comparison. This is a reboot after all.

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That's optimistic, I hope you're right. The betting money's on $65-75 right now.

You're too low. Trek score $3 mil more on Thursday than Iron Man did, which went on to earn $102 mil for the weekend. While I doubt the economic situation will allow that number, I'm pretty sure it will be close as the interest among Trekkies and non-Trekkies is extremely high as the favorable reviews keep coming in.

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That's optimistic, I hope you're right. The betting money's on $65-75 right now.

You're too low.

That's not me, that's the industry.

Friday's estimate is $24 million, so $31 mil counting Thursday.

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Trek did something Wolverine didn't do: had a higher gross Saturday than Friday (and that's with all those Thrusday night shows). That's a very good sign.

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Da Vinci Code earned 217 domestically. I doubt Angels and Demons will be as high, but I imagine it'll get at least 150.

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Still, you've got a summer hit that got 423 million domestically plus a few other blockbusters, getting 217 is a pretty tricky feat.

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When Nick asked what it had to compete with, he meant in the same weekend, the week before, and the week after. If The Da Vinci Code opened with nothing else, and nothing big preceding it or following it, then it had little competition and that greatly factors into its box office revenue.

Da Vinci opened on May 19th, Dead Man's Chest opened July 7th. The only movie you listed that could have taken revenue away from Da Vinci is X-Men 3.

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Angels and Demons will make more money than Star Trek.

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More evidence of Trek's legs: though Wolverine had the larger opening by a good $10 million, at the 7 day mark Trek has pulled $2 million ahead of Wolverine at the same time:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/cha...=summer09vs.htm

And as Mark mentioned, today's take should push this year's Star Trek ahead of IV as the highest grossing in the franchise's history. Not inflation adjusted, of course.

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Angels and Demons will make more money than Star Trek.

Globally, perhaps. Domestically, definitely not.

I was suprised to see that the box office trackers are predicting only $40 million for the opening weekend.

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