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No $40 mill opening day as predicted by analysts...


BLUMENKOHL

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Early box office results for Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull are very good, but shy of the meteoric predictions by many box office analysts, including yours truly. This morning Paramount has reported that the George Lucas/Steven Spielberg collaboration, the first Indiana Jones sequel in 19 years, grabbed an estimated $25 million on Thursday. That is well off the $50 million haul enjoyed by Lucas's Star Wars: Episode III — Revenge of the Sith on Thursday, May 19, 2005. Crystal Skull was thought to have a chance to surpass Revenge of the Sith's $172.8 million five-day record, but that now becomes a very uphill climb.

It's still a very good opening, but it's most likely going to go down tomorrow and Saturday...so those predicting $200-275 mill total gross back in the day during the Indy box office prediction thread, will most likely win the bets.

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Most certainly. I'm gonna try to see it again this weekend and do my part to help the opening weekend BO. An interesting thing, though, is that a couple of middle-aged gentlemen, regulars at the restaurant I work at, said they would probably go later in the week. I wonder how much of a concern for the opening crowd there is amongst some--and just flat timing issues of weekend vs. week, evening vs. night--and how much of a factor that is with any of the demographics, such as those who were around for the originals, etc.

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It's still a very good opening, but it's most likely going to go down tomorrow and Saturday...so those predicting $200-275 mill total gross back in the day during the Indy box office prediction thread, will most likely win the bets.

:blink:

I predicted a box office take similar to that of Superman Returns, in the $200-$250 million range.

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then expect a little more, since Superman returns was crappier than indy.

My range was $200-$250 million, Superman Returns barely made $200. So I'm sure Indy will outgross Returns but not by much. But it will perform like Returns, big opening, couple hundred million or so overall take, overall disappointing and not even close to top grosser for the year. I think I made that prediction over a year ago, I can't wait to see if I was right.

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Can't speak for the nation, obviously, but my theatre was busier on Friday than it was on Thursday, which is a good sign for the movie box-office-wise. Likely, Saturday will be even busier; that's the typical pattern, and it weren't going to hold true here, then it probably would have been off today compared to yesterday, too. Of course, that's just based on one theatre's matinee performance, but we tend to fall pretty well in line with what's happening nationally. (Except when it comes to Tyler Perry movies; then, we're waaaaay busier.)

Personally, I didn't expect this one to blow up on its opening day, at least not to a record-setting level; those were probably unrealistic expectations. After all, I think the Indiana Jones audience is a somewhat more casual audience than, say, the Star Wars audience. Part of that is because -- and this is a non-scientific theory, granted -- the Indy audience skews older than the Star Wars audience, and older audiences are less prone to rush right out and see a movie. Plenty of folks who want to see it were working Thursday and Friday; they'll show up Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Many of them -- my parents, for example -- are probably waiting to see it on its second weekend. Many more are probably waiting to hear if friends who see it like it or not.

And the word-of-mouth will be good, unless I'm just totally off my game. Audiences I've overheard have been almost entirely positive in their remarks. Not over-the-moon excited, perhaps, but positive nonetheless, and that always translates into good long-term box-office.

Helping it long-term will be the fact that it's got the next two weekends without any major competition. Sex and the City is going to do well next weekend, but it won't hurt Indy. Same goes for Kung Fu Panda the next weekend, and if You Don't Mess with the Zohan does well at all -- which I'm not convinced of, given how weird an idea it is -- then I don't think it'll sap any of Indy's audience, either.

That means The Incredible Hulk and The Happening are the first real competition it's got, and those aren't coming for three weeks.

$300 mil is in the bag, and it may well end up doing better.

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Don't forget too this is a three day weekend so there will be a lot of people at the theaters this weekend. Ya it might drop off slightly but probably not by much.

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Let us not forget that in the U.S., this is also Memorial Day weekend, so there will likely be lots of family going to see it and things like that.

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Hmmm 25 mill. opening instead of the predicted 40 mill. -- I'm surprised cynics don't already call it a flop. ;)

WOW, 56 mill. in just two days!!!

See THIS!!!

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It actually went up to $31 mill on Friday.

Good sign!

But $56 mill in two days is no big deal or WOW worthy at all.

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It actually went up to $31 mill on Friday.

Good sign!

But $56 mill in two days is no big deal or WOW worthy at all.

That's HUGE, especially considering that they took that much in on Thursday and Friday.

Imagine what Saturday and Sunday must be like!

They might get in the whole budget of 185 mill. in just a week! :lol:

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That's HUGE, especially considering that they took that much in on Thursday and Friday.

Imagine what Saturday and Sunday must be like!

They might get in the whole budget of 185 mill. in just a week!

I'm sorry, but let me be Frank™.

You have no idea what you're talking about.

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That's HUGE,

Is it?

Neil

Yeah, sure it is!

You don't always have to be No. 1, you know, in order to be considered HUGE. Besides, this new Indy movie has a slightly older core audience like, say, Spiderman or Star Wars had. They prefer to see it at theaters not on opening day but on weekends or a little later...

I'm certain the single day grosses will increase in the next few days.

That's HUGE, especially considering that they took that much in on Thursday and Friday.

Imagine what Saturday and Sunday must be like!

They might get in the whole budget of 185 mill. in just a week!

I'm sorry, but let me be Frank™.

You have no idea what you're talking about.

Yeah, good argument! :lol:

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I'm certain the single day grosses will increase in the next few days.

As will your ever-reliable logic, no doubt.

Another good argument. You're on a roll there, buddy.

That's HUGE,

Is it?

Neil

If you bother to post the link for Friday, why not for Thursday, while you're at it? :lol:

Here.

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We are not -- repeat, NOT -- living in a world in which a two-day gross of $60 million isn't considered huge. (Of course, Crystal Skull "only" made $56, let's note.)

However, box-office watching has gotten to be something kinda like I imagine trainspotting to be across the pond: people obsess over it. And any time a heavily trumpeted movie comes along, the expectations are going to be enormous. The only way for Indy to be major news would be for it to set some sort of record; otherwise, it's "been there done that" time (if you'll pardon a ninetiesism).

There's nothing to freak out about here. My theatre was busier on Saturday than on Friday, and we're typically in line with the nation, so you can probably look for about $35 mil from Saturday. That'd be $91 mil to date, with Sunday and a holiday Monday left to go, so in the $125-130 range for its full opening "weekend."

Considering that we're talking about a franchise that's lain dormant for 19 (!!) years, starring a fella who hasn't had a hit since the year 2000, directed by a guy who isn't quite the box-office titan he once was . . . well, those are pretty tasty numbers. One movie to compare it with is Terminator 3, which came a mere twelve years after its predecessor; it made only $150 mil its entire run, which was over $50 less than Terminator 2 -- a movie that was a slightly larger hit than Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade, I might point out. So in comparison to their predecessors, Crystal Skull is outperforming Terminator 3 so badly that it's kinda shameful.

All things considered, this movie is having a TERRIFIC opening weekend. The expectations some people were putting on it were always unrealistic; the fact that it "isn't living up" to those expectations is not to be held against it, in my opinion.

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From SciFi.com:

Indy Grosses $126 M

Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull unearthed an estimated $126 million since its opening at 12:01 a.m. May 22, according to The Hollywood Reporter.

That includes an estimated $101 million from Friday to Sunday, which followed a first-day Thursday gross of $25 million. Paramount also projected a $25 million haul for Monday, which would give the first Indy sequel in 19 years a five-day total of $151 million.

That would compare with $151.1 million tally posted by last year's Spider-Man 3, a best-ever weekend opening.

Star Wars: Episode III--Revenge of the Sith recorded the highest-grossing first five days of any picture before or since: $172.8 million after debuting on a Thursday before a non-holiday weekend in May 2005.

Meanwhile, Disney was projecting a Friday-Sunday gross of $23 million for The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian. That represented a 58 percent drop from the opening weekend to finish in second place through Monday for a 10-day total of $91.1 million.

Iron Man placed third for the weekend with an estimated three-day haul of $20.1 million and an estimated $25.6 million through Monday. The holiday-bolstered gross is expected to raise the hit movie's total to $257.8 million, making it by far 2008's best-grossing movie to date.

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Yes we know..... :)

From SciFi.com:
Indy Grosses $126 M

Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull unearthed an estimated $126 million since its opening at 12:01 a.m. May 22, according to The Hollywood Reporter.

That includes an estimated $101 million from Friday to Sunday, which followed a first-day Thursday gross of $25 million. Paramount also projected a $25 million haul for Monday, which would give the first Indy sequel in 19 years a five-day total of $151 million.

That would compare with $151.1 million tally posted by last year's Spider-Man 3, a best-ever weekend opening.

Star Wars: Episode III--Revenge of the Sith recorded the highest-grossing first five days of any picture before or since: $172.8 million after debuting on a Thursday before a non-holiday weekend in May 2005.

Meanwhile, Disney was projecting a Friday-Sunday gross of $23 million for The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian. That represented a 58 percent drop from the opening weekend to finish in second place through Monday for a 10-day total of $91.1 million.

Iron Man placed third for the weekend with an estimated three-day haul of $20.1 million and an estimated $25.6 million through Monday. The holiday-bolstered gross is expected to raise the hit movie's total to $257.8 million, making it by far 2008's best-grossing movie to date.

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I saw it twice.

I will see it again, probably . . . making this the only movie ever I saw 3 times in the theater!

I guess I AM a masochist. :)

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Masochists like whips.

This is a movie made for them :huh:

If you think about it, so do sadists!

Man, I thought this was an Indy thread? Why are we discussing S&M??? ;)

Wow, Indy 4 raked in $311 mill. already . . . worldwide!!!

HERE.

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There's no guessing about it.

Neil

Man, you must be one heck of a bore in real life.

Maybe, but not as boring as KOCS.

Neil

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this movie is a big flop.

;) After having the second biggest Memorial Day Weekend opening gross? How is it a flop?

Financially it's not.

However, in terms of story telling....

Neil

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...it's brilliant!

If this is brilliant, what does that makes Raiders of the Lost Ark, Jaws and Close Encounters of the Third Kind?

Neil

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this movie is a big flop.

;) After having the second biggest Memorial Day Weekend opening gross? How is it a flop?

heck i was joking.

i was just parafrasing some people here :lol:

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