The 2006 Box Office Thread

[JoeinAR 1,949]

Well time for my annual Summer boxoffice prediction.

As usual, there are tons of movies, digitizations, etc, coming out this summer. Everyone has their predictions, and I like to do one here.

so here goes.

#1. The DaVinci Code. Im surprised that of all the lists I've read, this is not #1 on a single list.

Its possible that they have read the book, and know, like I do, that its poorly written, poorly plotted, but it does have an interesting lead character, its basic story line is very intriguing, and its so controversial that the Vatican is opposed to the film, and here in the South, Baptist preachers have weekly sermons stating how blasphemous it is, of course few have read it, or realize its FICTION, but its all good free publicity, and folks will flock to see this. 400+ million

#2, Superman Returns. What can you say, its Superman, if it wasn't for the uber book/film above this would be my #1 pick, ~$300 million

#3, X-Men, The Last Stand, awesome trailers. Ratner takes the baton from Singer and finishes with a bang. $270 million

#4, Pirates of the Caribbean, another great looking sneek peek, but will it live up to the original.

$250 million,

#5, MI, III, Cruise, the freaky, the man who artificially inseminated Katie Holmes, has another summer block buster, it actually looks good., $230 million

#6, Cars, I reluctantly put this here, since I can't stand these stupid computer animated films, this summer has about 7 or 8 of them, and they all can't rule the boxoffice. $220 million.

#7, Poseidon, story of a man, a woman, a gay man, a woman, a wave, and a ship,

190 million

the rest you can fill in yourselves.

If I get one right in the top 5, I will consider myself lucky.

[Romão 2,274]

I would say than in the Us, the number 1 film will probably be Superman. Worldwide, the DaVinci Code might just take the prize.

[#SnowyVernalSpringsEternal 10,265]

The Omen will take the world by storm.

Total worldwide box office:

$666 Million.

[futuremartymcfly 0]

hmm for US, i expect disney to be lucky, no matter the quality of the films. Pixar is always a box office smash, and if you look on any disney forums the POTC2 is WAY overhyped, I don't think it will matter how good it is, POTC2 should be the top

1. POTC2

2. Cars

3. Mission Impossible III

4. Superman

5. Da Vinci Code or Xmen III

6. ditto

7. Poseidon

[#SnowyVernalSpringsEternal 10,265]

POTC2 isn't nearly as overhyped as The Da Vinci Code.

I mean that film has the Catholic Church in anger.

I can't imagine better publicity.

[futuremartymcfly 0]

i'm expecting the Da Vinci code to be pretty big, probably bigger then X-men, maybe even bigger then superman, but the amount of people that will see POTC is just way too great. Every disney fan, every Johnny Depp, which will likely include Tim Burton fans, many Orlando Bloom fans, and people who pretty much just liked the first movie will see it.

[#SnowyVernalSpringsEternal 10,265]

Disney still has fans?

[futuremartymcfly 0]

yes... some of the most narrow-minded in the world too

[ashinyobject 0]

I'll be seeing POTC2 just for Keira Knightley.

[John Crichton 4]

I think the fight for #1 will be between Superman and Pirates of the Carribean. DaVinci will probably fall into the King Kong category, a good showing but not up to the high expectations, I'm calling it third. Cars fourth, but is the top 3 sleeper. X-Men III or MI III round out the top 5.

John- who thinks these predictions will probably go as well as his preseason baseball predictions.

[stewdog1 50]

I doubt Poseidon will be all the way at #7. I think United 93 will make more than that.

[orrakul 0]

I think the fight for #1 will be between Superman and Pirates of the Carribean.

I agree with John; Superman then POTC 2, with "Cars" (which doesn't look too interesting to me) taking the no. 3 spot - Pixar hasn't taken a wrong step yet.

[King Mark 3,631]

No Star Wars,no Spielberg,no John Williams.This summer sucks.I don't give a crap.

k.M.

[#SnowyVernalSpringsEternal 10,265]

Perhaps you should go into hibernation untill a few weeks before Indy 4's score gets recorded.

[JMan 0]

I do agree. Although United 93 should do very well even in its early early summer release.

[Romão 2,274]

United 93 may have a good box-office, but I don't think it will reach blockbuster-like numbers.

[Morlock 11]

Well, judging by the amazingly excellent word of mouth it's been getting, I think it has an excellent chance of making real dough. We don't know yet what kind of market 9/11 movies have, but I have a feeling it'll be pretty darn big (though probably lacking some of repeated viewing a lot of the big blockbusters, not least of which Titanic, do enjoy).

[SturgisPodmore 0]

My predictions:

1. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

2. The DaVinci Code

3. Superman Returns

4. X-Men: The Last Stand

5. Mission: Impossible III

6. Poseidon

~Sturgis, who doesn't think Cars will actually do very well

[JoeinAR 1,949]

I do agree. Although United 93 should do very well even in its early early summer release.

ok, I'm not laughing at you, really, Im not, I just thought of something funny, it wasn't anything you wrote. Seriously.

[SomeNewGuy 0]

I've never been known to predict grosses accurately (quite the opposite, in fact), but here are mine anyway:

1. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

2. Superman Returns

3. X-men: The Last Stand

4. Cars

5. The Da Vinci Code (It wouldn't shock me to see it do better-- it has the same kind of box office draw as The Passion, albeit wildly different. It may well be a huge success.)

6. Mission: Impossible 3

7. Poseidon

I don't think United 93 will do well in theaters, but over time I think it will become a movie that everybody has seen. Its long-term revenue will likely be pretty large.

[King Mark 3,631]

Even when you become a veteran poster,you can't change your screen name...

K.M.

[orrakul 0]

LOL

[Unlucky Bastard 7,782]

Young girls will flock to see Pirates because "OMG Johhny & orlando are teh HOTT!!1!!!11!" And Mission: Impossible III will probably make ridiculous amounts just like the abysmal and incomprehensible second film.

I'd like to think that Superman Returns will be a huge hit simply because I'm a "Superman" nut, but I'm approaching this one with caution.

[Trent B 337]

I'll definitely be seeing X-Men 3 and Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest in theaters. I hope those two films really do well in the boxoffice this summer.

I could careless about the other films mentioned and I know I won't be seeing them.

[Ollie 1,059]

I'm going to try something a little different. I'm going to figure a high and a low for each film. Depending on the quality and and how well each film is received it should fall around the numbers indicated.

1. Mission: Impossible III $185-$280 Million

2. Superman Returns $175-$250 Million

3. Cars $230-$280 Million

4. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $225-$265 Million

5. The DaVinci Code $195-$300 Million

6. X-Men: The Last Stand $175-$210 Million

7. Posieden $80-100 million

[JMan 0]

Yea this is rather pathetic. Not to sound sarcastic or condescending which is what some of you do to eachother, why in the HELL would this be a topic at the John Williams Fan Network?

From now on, I'm going to respond only to topics that are somewhat something to do with Music and John Williams.

[futuremartymcfly 0]

Yea this is rather pathetic. Not to sound sarcastic or condescending which is what some of you do to eachother, why in the HELL would this be a topic at the John Williams Fan Network?  

From now on, I'm going to respond only to topics that are somewhat something to do with Music and John Williams.

anything having to do with films, music or John Williams is allowed in general discussion, and I'm pretty sure box office predictions has to do with films.

[nightscape94 965]

Because it's fun to talk about a wide variety of things, not strictly pertaining to one subject.

Tim

[JoeinAR 1,949]

Yea this is rather pathetic. Not to sound sarcastic or condescending which is what some of you do to eachother, why in the HELL would this be a topic at the John Williams Fan Network?  

From now on, I'm going to respond only to topics that are somewhat something to do with Music and John Williams.

good, then you won't reply to this, I have done this for several years now at this board, and its been a fairly popular thread, everytime.

as for what does it have to do with JW, sometimes alot, as last year the top two summer films both featured a JW score. This summer one of the top films will feature themes by John Williams.

[Ollie 1,059]

Yea this is rather pathetic. Not to sound sarcastic or condescending which is what some of you do to eachother, why in the HELL would this be a topic at the John Williams Fan Network?  

From now on, I'm going to respond only to topics that are somewhat something to do with Music and John Williams.

I'll make sure to post stuff you won't bother reading then....

[tpigeon 3]

I better get these in before the numbers for M:I: III come out. Here are my summer box-office predictions in the form of the summer's Top Ten highest grossing films:

#1. Pirates of the Carribean: Dead Man's Chest - The first film unexpectedly crossed the $300 million mark, and I expect this one to do the same. The new preview was rather good. I'm thinking that this trilogy will actually shape up to be pleasing to audiences, and it all rides on this film. Prediction: $340 million

#2. The Da Vanci Code - It's all been said. People who don't go to the movies often will flock to see it, but will the prime demographic, young people, go as well? Still, this should do exceedingly well, especially given the amount of press it's been getting. Prediction: $300 million

#3. Cars - Pixar. John Lasseter. Prediction: $280 million

#4. X-Men: The Last Stand - Supposedly the last act of the X-trilogy looks surprisingly good, and given the positive reactions to the second film and big box office jump over the first, this film will exceed even that one. Prediction: $240 million

#5. Superman Returns - For some reason, I just get this feeling that the movie won't be that good. It still has its built-in audience and will do well over 200, but I just feel like Superman's time has past. Spidey took over the feel-good colorful superhero stuff. The rest is dominated by darker, more gritty subject matter. Prediction $230 million

#6. Mission: Impossible III - Yes, this movie will still make a lot of money, even though everyone seems to hate Tom Cruise. Critic feedback is positive, and this movie will deliver the action people want from it. Prediction: $210 million

#7. Over the Hedge - DreamWorks hasn't been able to keep up with Disney after the success of Shrek. Though I expect this to be better than Madagascar, I don't think it will make enough before Cars is released. Prediction: $190 million

#8. Lady In the Water - M. Night Strikes Back with this sleeper. It probably won't set the world on fire, but its odd premise will keep people talking. Prediction: $175 million

# 9. Poseidon - Wolfgang has been disappointing with his last few movies. I expect this one to marginally please its mainly teenage boy audience, but will ultimately get drowned out by M:I: III, X-3, and Da Vinci Code. Prediction: $130 million

#10 (tie) The Break-Up - I think Aniston and Vaughn are good box office right now. This will hit the century mark. Prediction $110 million

#10 (tie) Click - Pre-packagaed Adam Sandler high concept is good for at least. Prediction: $110 million

Ted

[Justin 2]

No Star Wars,no Spielberg,no John Williams.This summer sucks.I don't give a crap.

How can the Superman Returns trailer NOT get your blood pumping?

Justin

[Mr. Breathmask 555]

No Star Wars,no Spielberg,no John Williams.This summer sucks.I don't give a crap.

How can the Superman Returns trailer NOT get your blood pumping?

Because I realised all the best stuff in that trailer was already released in 1978.

[#SnowyVernalSpringsEternal 10,265]

You forget Kevin Spacey!

[Mr. Breathmask 555]

I was referring to the teaser, btw.

I'll watch the new trailer later.

After I finish catching up.

So in about two more hours. :?

[Greg1138 3]

Jo - I think your original list is pretty-much on-the-money.....though I would think Superman would gross higher.....maybe even pinch the top spot?

[JoeinAR 1,949]

we will see, sometime in September.

[futuremartymcfly 0]

hmm, I think the mission predictions should probably go down a little bit, I think Da Vinci code might do better

[Hitch 57]

How can the Superman Returns trailer NOT get your blood pumping? Justin

You don't have Hitchcock to kick around any more!

[BLUMENKOHL 1,068]

I'm putting Davinci Code at $75mill for opening weekend,

[pi 0]

Nice Predictions. May i also say that Knightley's abs alone are worth seeing POTC2 at least one time.

[King Mark 3,631]

No Star Wars,no Spielberg,no John Williams.This summer sucks.I don't give a crap.

How can the Superman Returns trailer NOT get your blood pumping?

Justin

Actually I saw the trailer before Mission impossible 3 last night,it looked awsome.And MI3 was very good,although I wouldn't see it more than once.

K.M.

[tpigeon 3]

M:I:III was a competent action movie with a few nice set pieces, notably the scenes at the Vatican and on the bridge. Ultimately, I thought it was mediocre. I would have liked it a bit more if it had anything resembling a good third act. The film bowed to many cliches and failed to create interesting enough characters to care about, and like I said, the final twenty minutes or so was borderline bad.

Ted

[JoeinAR 1,949]

the public shunned it too.

[QMM 4]

1. Snakes on a Plane. Movie of the Year

[Romão 2,274]

It may very well be a huge hit. The internet buzz around it has been huge. And the concept is intriguing to say the least

[bob23 0]

I think that Snakes on a Plane will be in the top ten. I also think that PotC will be the top grosser, the trailer looks pretty cool and the first movie was good. My list

1. PotC

2. DaVinci

3. Superman

4. MI3

5. Snakes

6. Cars

7. X-men

[JoeinAR 1,949]

snakes on a plane will not be a big hit, it will be a cult hit, but it won't make much more than 100 million if that.

[Greg1138 3]

Snakes on a Plane is going to be huge on the DVD market, but I can't see it grossing more than 75 at the box office....

[nightscape94 965]

They also upped the rating in the States from PG-13 to R, adding more gore and nudity, which means they narrowed the audienced a little more.

Tim